Risk analysis of prethreshold retinopathy of prematurity
Risk analysis of prethreshold retinopathy of prematurity
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DOI：
10.1001/archopht.121.12.1697
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发表时间：
2003-12-01
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Tung, B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hardy, RJ;Palmer, EA;Tung, B
目的：提出一种新的多因素算法，以整合在早产儿视网膜病变冷冻治疗（CRYO-ROP）研究中达到阈值前早产儿视网膜病变（ROP）的眼睛中不利视网膜结局的重要风险因素。一个计算机化的风险模型（RM-ROP 2），从这个算法来识别高风险的阈值前的眼睛，在早期治疗视网膜病变的早产儿randomized trial.Methods：数据进行了分析，从613眼（1眼每婴儿）的自然历史队列的冷冻治疗视网膜病变的早产儿的多中心试验。这些眼睛选自单眼或双眼进展至阈值前ROP的婴儿。进展到阈值ROP并随机接受冷冻治疗的眼睛被排除在本研究之外，但达到阈值ROP的对照眼睛被包括在内。追踪每名婴儿第一阈前眼ROP的病程，直至3个月后评估其结构结局。表格按选定的风险特征列出了结构性结果。一个多逻辑风险模型是用来总结所有这些已知的预后风险因素的综合效果，因为它们涉及到结构outcome.Results：眼睛被分为10个风险类别，最低到最高的预测结果。从最低风险到最高风险，每个类别的观察结果和预测结果都显示出越来越不利的结果。然后将阈值前ROP眼分为2组，高风险眼（风险，0.15-1.0）和低风险眼（风险，
Objective: To present a new multifactorial algorithm to integrate important risk factors for unfavorable retinal outcome in eyes that reached prethreshold retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) in the Cryotherapy for Retinopathy of Prematurity (CRYO-ROP) study. A computerized risk model (RM-ROP2) was developed from this algorithm to identify high-risk prethreshold eyes for enrollment in the Early Treatment for Retinopathy of Prematurity randomized trial.Methods: Data were analyzed from 613 eyes (1 eye per infant) in the natural history cohort of the Multicenter Trial for Cryotherapy for Retinopathy of Prematurity. These eyes were selected from infants in whom I or both eyes progressed to prethreshold ROP. Eyes that progressed to threshold ROP and were randomized to cryotherapy were excluded from this study, but control eyes that reached threshold ROP were included. The course of ROP for I prethreshold eye for each infant was tracked until the evaluation of its structural outcome at 3 months' postterm. Tables present structural outcome by selected risk characteristics. A multiple logistic risk model is used to summarize the combined effect of all of these known prognostic risk factors as they relate to structural outcome.Results: Eyes were classified by predicted outcome into 10 risk categories, lowest to highest. Both the observed and predicted outcomes in each category showed an increasingly unfavorable outcome when viewed from lowest to highest risk. Prethreshold ROP eyes were then divided into 2 groups, high-risk, eyes (risk, 0.15-1.0) and low-risk eyes (risk,