Socioeconomic vulnerability and electric power restoration timelines in Florida: the case of Hurricane Irma
Socioeconomic vulnerability and electric power restoration timelines in Florida: the case of Hurricane Irma
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DOI：
10.1007/s11069-018-3413-x
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发表时间：
2018-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Lai, Betty S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mitsova, Diana;Esnard, Ann-Margaret;Lai, Betty S.
飓风和大风事件对电力基础设施造成的大规模破坏可能会对基础设施、更广泛的经济、家庭、社区和地区产生毁灭性的连锁反应。以飓风“艾尔玛”对佛罗里达州的影响为例，我们研究了：（1）城乡县间停电和恢复率的差异； (2) 遭受热带风暴强风与飓风 1 类强风影响的县的停电持续时间； (3)停电持续时间与社会经济脆弱性之间的关系。我们使用了2017年9月9日至2017年9月29日期间的停电数据。在飓风艾尔玛之后的停电高峰期，佛罗里达州超过36%的账户断电。我们发现，主要由农村电力合作社和市政公用事业公司提供服务的农村县经历了更长的停电时间和更慢且不均匀的恢复时间。三个空间滞后模型的结果表明，农村电力合作社和市政公用事业公司服务的大部分客户是延长停电持续时间的有力预测因素。在所有三个模型中，停电持续时间与城市/农村县的指定之间也存在很强的正相关关系。最后，停电和一些社会脆弱性指标之间存在正空间依赖性。三个具有统计显着性的社会经济变量突显了停电脆弱性的三个不同方面：少数群体、有感官、身体和精神残疾的人口，以及以失业率表示的经济脆弱性。我们的研究结果在我们的案例研究领域之外具有更广泛的规划和政策相关性，并强调需要进行额外的研究，以加深我们对飓风后电力恢复如何影响社区社会经济脆弱性的理解。
Large-scale damage to the power infrastructure from hurricanes and high-wind events can have devastating ripple effects on infrastructure, the broader economy, households, communities, and regions. Using Hurricane Irma's impact on Florida as a case study, we examined: (1) differences in electric power outages and restoration rates between urban and rural counties; (2) the duration of electric power outages in counties exposed to tropical storm force winds versus hurricane Category 1 force winds; and (3) the relationship between the duration of power outage and socioeconomic vulnerability. We used power outage data for the period September 9, 2017-September 29, 2017. At the peak of the power outages following Hurricane Irma, over 36% of all accounts in Florida were without electricity. We found that the rural counties, predominantly served by rural electric cooperatives and municipally owned utilities, experienced longer power outages and much slower and uneven restoration times. Results of three spatial lag models show that large percentages of customers served by rural electric cooperatives and municipally owned utilities were a strong predictor of the duration of extended power outages. There was also a strong positive association across all three models between power outage duration and urban/rural county designation. Finally, there is positive spatial dependence between power outages and several social vulnerability indicators. Three socioeconomic variables found to be statistically significant highlight three different aspects of vulnerability to power outages: minority groups, population with sensory, physical and mental disability, and economic vulnerability expressed as unemployment rate. The findings from our study have broader planning and policy relevance beyond our case study area, and highlight the need for additional research to deepen our understanding of how power restoration after hurricanes contributes to and is impacted by the socioeconomic vulnerabilities of communities.