The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation
The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.006
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发表时间：
2005-07-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Kelly, PM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brooks, N;Adger, WN;Kelly, PM
我们提出了一套指标的脆弱性和能力，以适应气候变异性，并通过扩展气候变化，使用一种新的经验分析，在国家一级的十年时间尺度上汇总的数据。分析是基于一个概念框架，其中的风险被视为结果，是一个功能的物理定义的气候灾害和社会构建的脆弱性。气候后果以与气候有关的灾害造成的死亡率来表示，使用紧急事件数据库数据集，死亡率与脆弱性潜在替代物短名单之间的统计关系被用来确定关键的脆弱性指标。我们发现，11个关键指标表现出与气候相关灾害相关的十年累计死亡率有很强的关系。利用通过重点小组活动收集的专家判断数据，探讨了指标的验证、脆弱性和适应能力之间的关系以及随后的脆弱性评估对不同权重的敏感性。这些数据被用来对国家一级与气候有关的死亡率的脆弱性进行有力的评估，并成为更详细地探讨脆弱性和适应能力的一个切入点。它们表明，最脆弱的国家是撒哈拉以南非洲国家和最近经历冲突的国家。适应能力-能力的一个要素-主要与治理、公民权利和政治权利以及扫盲有关。(C)2005爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
We present a set of indicators of vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate variability, and by extension climate change, derived using a novel empirical analysis of data aggregated at the national level on a decadal timescale. The analysis is based on a conceptual framework in which risk is viewed in terms of outcome, and is a function of physically defined climate hazards and socially constructed vulnerability. Climate outcomes are represented by mortality from climate-related disasters, using the emergency events database data set, statistical relationships between mortality and a shortlist of potential proxies for vulnerability are used to identify key vulnerability indicators. We find that 11 key indicators exhibit a strong relationship with decadally aggregated mortality associated with climate-related disasters. Validation of indicators, relationships between vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and the sensitivity of subsequent vulnerability assessments to different sets of weightings are explored using expert judgement data, collected through a focus group exercise. The data are used to provide a robust assessment of vulnerability to climate-related mortality at the national level, and represent an entry point to more detailed explorations of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. They indicate that the most vulnerable nations are those situated in sub-Saharan Africa and those that have recently experienced conflict. Adaptive capacity-one element of vulnerability-is associated predominantly with governance, civil and political rights, and literacy. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.