Global rise in emerging alien species results from increased accessibility of new source pools
Global rise in emerging alien species results from increased accessibility of new source pools
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1719429115
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发表时间：
2018-03-06
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Essl, Franz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Seebens, Hanno;Blackburn, Tim M.;Essl, Franz
我们预测未来外来入侵物种身份的能力主要是基于对先前入侵历史的了解。因此，新出现的外来物种-那些以前从未遇到过的外来物种-对全世界的生物安全干预措施构成了重大挑战。了解其时间趋势、起源和传播驱动因素对于改进预防和风险评估工具至关重要。在这里，我们使用了一个数据库的45,984第一次记录的16,019建立外来物种调查的时间动态的出现外来物种在世界范围内。即使经过许多世纪的入侵，新的外来物种的出现率仍然很高：2000-2005年期间的第一次记录中有四分之一是以前没有被记录为外来物种的物种，尽管在分类群中有很大的变化。模型结果表明，外来物种的高比例不能仅仅用众所周知的驱动因素的增加来解释，例如从历史上重要的来源地区进口商品的数量。相反，这些动态反映了新的地区被纳入潜在的外来物种库，这可能是扩大贸易网络和环境变化的结果。这一过程弥补了历史上重要的源物种库通过连续入侵的消耗。我们估计，地球上所有物种的1-16%，根据分类组，有资格成为潜在的外来物种。这些结果表明，仍有很高比例的新出现的外来物种我们尚未遇到，未来的影响难以预测。
Our ability to predict the identity of future invasive alien species is largely based upon knowledge of prior invasion history. Emerging alien species-those never encountered as aliens before-therefore pose a significant challenge to biosecurity interventions worldwide. Understanding their temporal trends, origins, and the drivers of their spread is pivotal to improving prevention and risk assessment tools. Here, we use a database of 45,984 first records of 16,019 established alien species to investigate the temporal dynamics of occurrences of emerging alien species worldwide. Even after many centuries of invasions the rate of emergence of new alien species is still high: Onequarter of first records during 2000-2005 were of species that had not been previously recorded anywhere as alien, though with large variation across taxa. Model results show that the high proportion of emerging alien species cannot be solely explained by increases in well-known drivers such as the amount of imported commodities from historically important source regions. Instead, these dynamics reflect the incorporation of new regions into the pool of potential alien species, likely as a consequence of expanding trade networks and environmental change. This process compensates for the depletion of the historically important source species pool through successive invasions. We estimate that 1-16% of all species on Earth, depending on the taxonomic group, qualify as potential alien species. These results suggest that there remains a high proportion of emerging alien species we have yet to encounter, with future impacts that are difficult to predict.