Agricultural land use changes - a scenario-based sustainability impact assessment for Brandenburg, Germany
Agricultural land use changes - a scenario-based sustainability impact assessment for Brandenburg, Germany
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.09.004
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发表时间：
2015-01-01
影响因子：
6.9
通讯作者：
Zander, P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gutzler, C.;Helming, K.;Zander, P.
农业管理决策是在农场规模上作出的。然而，这种决定可能会对区域可持续性产生很大影响。农业管理部门应对未来挑战的两个可能对策是扩大灌溉和增加能源作物的产量。造成这种情况的原因是商品价格高企和可再生能源补贴政策。然而，这些应对措施对区域可持续性的影响尚不清楚。因此，我们对德国勃兰登堡的联邦州2025年的农业集约化情景进行了综合影响评估。一个灌溉情景和一个能源情景与企业作为替代方案进行了对比。我们应用了九个指标来分析经济，社会和环境影响的区域，在这种情况下，区规模，这是最小的行政单位在勃兰登堡。评估结果在一个利益相关者研讨会上进行了讨论，该研讨会有来自州政府的16名专家参加。在“一切照旧”、灌溉和能源情景下，用于饲料和能源的青贮玉米的模拟面积份额分别为29%、37%和49%。能源方案将生物发电量提高到勃兰登堡需求的41%，并节省了高达350万吨的二氧化碳。然而，它导致了生物多样性的丧失，景观的丧失，土壤侵蚀的风险增加，并增加了对水保护要求的地区需求。灌溉方案导致产量增加7%（油菜籽），18%（小麦，甜菜）和40%（玉米）相比，一切照旧的情况。它还减少了年度产量的变化。在14个地区中，有两个地区的灌溉用水需求与其他用水发生冲突。情景影响的空间分异表明，中低产潜力区比高产潜力区受到更多的负面影响，在这第一次全面的可持续性影响评估的农业集约化情景在区域层面上，我们表明，农业集约化的潜力相当大。这种加剧伴随着不利的环境和社会经济影响。其新奇在于将全面的农业管理模拟与区域一级的影响评估多尺度结合起来，这是通过充分使用指标实现的。为政策制定提供了相关依据。利益攸关方赞赏评估采取的综合办法，这种办法证实了政府机构之间正在进行的讨论。评估方法和勃兰登堡案例研究可作为世界其他地区的典范，在这些地区，类似的经济和政策驱动力可能导致农业集约化。(C)2014作者爱思唯尔有限公司出版
Decisions for agricultural management are taken at farm scale. However, such decisions may well impact upon regional sustainability. Two of the likely agricultural management responses to future challenges are extended use of irrigation and increased production of energy crops. The drivers for these are high commodity prices and subsidy policies for renewable energy. However, the impacts of these responses upon regional sustainability are unknown. Thus, we conducted integrated impact assessments for agricultural intensification scenarios in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany, for 2025. One Irrigation scenario and one Energy scenario were contrasted with the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. We applied nine indicators to analyze the economic, social and environmental effects at the regional, in this case district scale, which is the smallest administrative unit in Brandenburg. Assessment results were discussed in a stakeholder workshop involving 16 experts from the state government.The simulated area shares of silage maize for fodder and energy were 29%, 37% and 49% for the BAU, Irrigation, and Energy scenarios, respectively. The Energy scenario increased bio-electricity production to 41% of the demand of Brandenburg, and it resulted in CO2 savings of up to 3.5 million tons. However, it resulted in loss of biodiversity, loss of landscape scenery, increased soil erosion risk, and increased area demand for water protection requirements. The Irrigation scenario led to yield increases of 7% (rapeseed), 18% (wheat, sugar beet), and 40% (maize) compared to the BAU scenario. It also reduced the year-to-year yield variability. Water demand for irrigation was found to be in conflict with other water uses for two of the 14 districts. Spatial differentiation of scenario impacts showed that districts with medium to low yield potentials were more affected by negative impacts than districts with high yield potentials.In this first comprehensive sustainability impact assessment of agricultural intensification scenarios at regional level, we showed that a considerable potential for agricultural intensification exists. The intensification is accompanied by adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. The novelty lies in the multiscale integration of comprehensive, agricultural management simulations with regional level impact assessment, which was achieved with the adequate use of indicators. It provided relevant evidence for policy decision making. Stakeholders appreciated the integrative approach of the assessment, which substantiated ongoing discussions among the government bodies. The assessment approach and the Brandenburg case study may stay exemplary for other regions in the world where similar economic and policy driving forces are likely to lead to agricultural intensification. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.