Effective communication of uncertainty in the IPCC reports
Effective communication of uncertainty in the IPCC reports
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-011-0330-3
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发表时间：
2012-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Broomell, Stephen B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Budescu, David V.;Por, Han-Hui;Broomell, Stephen B.
政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）定期发布评估报告，向决策者和公众通报与理解人类引起的气候变化有关的问题。IPCC对不确定性使用了一组7种语言描述，例如不太可能和非常可能，以传达其预测和结论的潜在不准确性。我们报告了一项实验的结果，比较了使用这些词和它们的数字对应物的沟通效果。我们发现，公众对IPCC报告中的概率陈述的误读呈现出一种倒退的趋势，而且对这些陈述的解读存在很大的个体差异，这与受访者的意识形态以及他们对气候变化问题的看法和信念有关。最重要的是，我们的结果表明，使用双重（语言-数字）量表将优于当前的交流模式，因为它(a)增加了不同术语之间的区分程度，(b)增加了对这些术语解释的一致性，(c)增加了与IPCC指南的一致性水平。最重要的是，这些积极影响与受访者的意识形态和环境观点无关。
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) publishes periodical assessment reports informing policymakers and the public on issues relevant to the understanding of human induced climate change. The IPCC uses a set of 7 verbal descriptions of uncertainty, such as unlikely and very likely to convey the underlying imprecision of its forecasts and conclusions. We report results of an experiment comparing the effectiveness of communication using these words and their numerical counterparts. We show that the public consistently misinterprets the probabilistic statements in the IPCC report in a regressive fashion, and that there are large individual differences in the interpretation of these statements, which are associated with the respondents' ideology and their views and beliefs about climate change issues. Most importantly our results suggest that using a dual (verbal-numerical) scale would be superior to the current mode of communication as it (a) increases the level of differentiation between the various terms, (b) increases the consistency of interpretation of these terms, and (c) increases the level of consistency with the IPCC guidelines. Most importantly, these positive effects are independent of the respondents' ideological and environmental views.