Battery electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cells and biofuels. Which will be the winner?
Battery electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cells and biofuels. Which will be the winner?
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DOI：
10.1039/c1ee01804c
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发表时间：
2011-10-01
影响因子：
32.5
通讯作者：
Thoennes, M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Contestabile, M.;Offer, G. J.;Thoennes, M.
要解决当今公路运输的经济和环境可持续性问题，除其他外，需要迅速引进替代的低碳燃料和高效、低排放的动力总成。从以石油为基础的燃料和传统内燃机的转变不太可能以必要的速度和遵循最佳路径有机地发生，因此需要政策干预。然而，为了制定有效的政策，在现有知识允许的情况下，尽可能充分地了解替代技术的潜在作用是至关重要的。几项备受瞩目的研究比较了混合动力车、插电式混合动力车、电池电动汽车、氢燃料电池和生物燃料等替代道路交通技术的潜力。这些研究在本文中进行了批判性的回顾，产生了大量的知识。然而，我们已经确定了在未来的比较研究中应该解决的局限性。这些问题是：a)乘用车市场由许多细分市场组成，具有不同的需求和使用模式，没有得到充分的反映；b)一般不考虑新政策和新技术对未来驾驶行为带来的变化；c)不同的研究对替代燃料和动力系统使用不同的性能指标，使得非专家很难比较和解释结果。我们测试这些限制对上述每种替代技术的总拥有成本的影响。我们证明，将市场细分和行为变化纳入比较分析对其结果有重大影响，我们建议在未来的研究中这样做。
Addressing the economic and environmental sustainability problems of today's road transport requires, inter alia, the rapid introduction of alternative, low-carbon fuels and highly efficient, low-emission powertrains. It is unlikely that the transition from oil-based fuels and conventional internal combustion engines will occur organically at the necessary rate and following an optimum path, hence policy intervention is required. However, in order to design effective policies it is essential that the potential role of the alternative technologies is understood as best as current knowledge allows. Several high-profile studies have compared the potential of alternative road transport technologies, such as hybrids, plug-in hybrids, battery electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cells and biofuels. The studies, critically reviewed in this paper, have generated a tremendous amount of knowledge. However, we have identified limitations that should be addressed in future comparative studies. These are: a) the complexity of the passenger car market, consisting of many segments characterised by different requirements and use patterns, is not adequately represented; b) future changes in driving behaviour brought about by new policy and technology are generally not considered; c) different studies use different performance indicators for alternative fuels and powertrains, making results difficult to compare and their interpretation difficult for the non-expert. We test the effect of these limitations on the Total Cost of Ownership of each of the alternative technologies mentioned above. We demonstrate that building market segments and behavioural change into a comparative analysis significantly affects its results and we recommend that this is done in future studies.