Analysis of CDC social control measures using an agent-based simulation of an influenza epidemic in a city.
Analysis of CDC social control measures using an agent-based simulation of an influenza epidemic in a city.
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使用基于代理的基于代理商的流感流行病的模拟来分析CDC社会控制措施。
DOI：
10.1186/1471-2334-11-199
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发表时间：
2011-07-18
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Ettema D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yang Y;Atkinson PM;Ettema D
传染病在人群中的传播是一个复杂的过程，需要先进的、通常是基于个人的模型来捕捉现实中观察到的时空细节。应用基于活动的个体时空模型（ISTAM）来模拟非药物控制措施的有效性，这些措施包括：（1）避免社交活动，（2）学校关闭和（3）家庭隔离，假设在城市地区发生流感爆发。在测试的一套控制措施中，不同遵守程度的社交活动相对无效。居家隔离非常有效，特别是对病例高峰期和总病例数，不同合规水平之间差异较大。居家隔离导致病例峰值从300多例降至100%达标水平的158例左右，下降约48.7%。疫情高峰推迟约3 ~ 17天。病例总数降至3635-5403例，即基线值的63.7%-94.7%。当控制措施耦合时，家庭隔离和学校关闭是最有效的策略。由此产生的空间-时间分布的感染在不同类别的活动束（AB）表明，流行病的爆发是加强儿童，然后蔓延到成人。通过敏感性分析，本研究表明，越早实施控制措施，效果越好。此外，对于基本繁殖数较大的传染病，非药物措施的效果有限。模拟结果表明，入户隔离是最有效的控制措施，而学校关闭和入户隔离一起实施的效益最大。今后应采用基于病原体的模型，在对特定病例有足够信息和对传播过程有精细了解的情况下，评价在各种环境下对一系列疾病暴发采取的控制措施的效力。
The transmission of infectious disease amongst the human population is a complex process which requires advanced, often individual-based, models to capture the space-time details observed in reality. An Individual Space-Time Activity-based Model (ISTAM) was applied to simulate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical control measures including: (1) refraining from social activities, (2) school closure and (3) household quarantine, for a hypothetical influenza outbreak in an urban area. Amongst the set of control measures tested, refraining from social activities with various compliance levels was relatively ineffective. Household quarantine was very effective, especially for the peak number of cases and total number of cases, with large differences between compliance levels. Household quarantine resulted in a decrease in the peak number of cases from more than 300 to around 158 for a 100% compliance level, a decrease of about 48.7%. The delay in the outbreak peak was about 3 to 17 days. The total number of cases decreased to a range of 3635-5403, that is, 63.7%-94.7% of the baseline value. When coupling control measures, household quarantine together with school closure was the most effective strategy. The resulting space-time distribution of infection in different classes of activity bundles (AB) suggests that the epidemic outbreak is strengthened amongst children and then spread to adults. By sensitivity analysis, this study demonstrated that earlier implementation of control measures leads to greater efficacy. Also, for infectious diseases with larger basic reproduction number, the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures was shown to be limited. Simulated results showed that household quarantine was the most effective control measure, while school closure and household quarantine implemented together achieved the greatest benefit. Agent-based models should be applied in the future to evaluate the efficacy of control measures for a range of disease outbreaks in a range of settings given sufficient information about the given case and knowledge about the transmission processes at a fine scale.
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DOI：
10.1068/b2833
发表时间：
2004-05-01
期刊：
ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING B-PLANNING & DESIGN
影响因子：
--
作者：
Bian, L
通讯作者：
Bian, L
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Given, LM;Leckie, GJ
通讯作者：
Leckie, GJ
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Halloran, ME;Longini, IM;Yang, Y
通讯作者：
Yang, Y
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0601266103
发表时间：
2006-04-11
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Germann, TC;Kadau, K;Macken, CA
通讯作者：
Macken, CA
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0610941104
发表时间：
2007-05-01
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Hatchett, Richard J.;Mecher, Carter E.;Lipsitch, Marc
通讯作者：
Lipsitch, Marc