A flexibly shaped space-time scan statistic for disease outbreak detection and monitoring
A flexibly shaped space-time scan statistic for disease outbreak detection and monitoring
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DOI：
10.1186/1476-072x-7-14
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发表时间：
2008-04-11
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Yih, Katherine
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Takahashi, Kunihiko;Kulldorff, Martin;Yih, Katherine
背景资料：疾病爆发的早期发现使公共卫生官员能够尽早实施疾病控制和预防措施。基于圆柱形时空扫描统计的时间周期性地理疾病监测系统已经与SaTScan软件一起沿着广泛用于疾病监测。在纯粹的空间环境中，已经提出了许多不同的方法来检测空间疾病集群。特别是，一些空间扫描统计的目的是检测不规则形状的集群，可能不会被检测到的圆形空间扫描statistics.Results：基于灵活的纯空间扫描统计，我们提出了一个灵活的形状的时空扫描统计疾病爆发的早期检测。使用基准数据将所提出的时空扫描统计的性能与圆柱扫描统计的性能进行了比较。为了比较它们的性能，我们通过扩展纯空间双变量功率分布来开发时空功率分布。以美国马萨诸塞州的每日症状监测数据为例，说明所提出的检验统计量。结论：灵活的时空扫描统计量非常适合于检测和监测形状不规则地区的疾病暴发。
Background: Early detection of disease outbreaks enables public health officials to implement disease control and prevention measures at the earliest possible time. A time periodic geographical disease surveillance system based on a cylindrical space- time scan statistic has been used extensively for disease surveillance along with the SaTScan software. In the purely spatial setting, many different methods have been proposed to detect spatial disease clusters. In particular, some spatial scan statistics are aimed at detecting irregularly shaped clusters which may not be detected by the circular spatial scan statistic.Results: Based on the flexible purely spatial scan statistic, we propose a flexibly shaped space- time scan statistic for early detection of disease outbreaks. The performance of the proposed spacetime scan statistic is compared with that of the cylindrical scan statistic using benchmark data. In order to compare their performances, we have developed a space- time power distribution by extending the purely spatial bivariate power distribution. Daily syndromic surveillance data in Massachusetts, USA, are used to illustrate the proposed test statistic.Conclusion: The flexible space- time scan statistic is well suited for detecting and monitoring disease outbreaks in irregularly shaped areas.