Prostitution and Human Trafficking: A model-based exploration and policy analysis
Prostitution and Human Trafficking: A model-based exploration and policy analysis
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卖淫与人口贩运：基于模型的探索和政策分析
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. Pruyt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Kővári;E. Pruyt
最古老的职业与现代奴隶制的相遇是本文的主题。在简要介绍了卖淫和与卖淫有关的人口贩运之后，本文将重点放在荷兰的政策辩论上。本文提出了一个与荷兰情况相关的系统动力学仿真模型，该模型旨在探索并提供与拟议政策的影响相关的见解。利用模拟模型，首先进行了“快速而肮脏”的政策分析，并得出了初步结论。这些初步结论在不确定性下进一步验证，使用两个不同但相对相似的模拟模型。主要结论是，需求侧措施是必要的，但还不够。这一课题具有复杂性和不确定性，简单的（组合）基本政策并不适用于所有情况，因此这一课题需要在深度不确定性下进行进一步的探索和政策测试。
The meeting of the oldest profession with modern slavery is the topic of this paper. After a brief introduction to prostitution and prostitution-related human trafficking, this paper focuses on the Dutch policy debate. A System Dynamics simulation model related to the Dutch situation developed to explore and provide insights related to the effects of proposed policies is presented in this paper. Using the simulation model, a ‘quick and dirty’ policy analysis is first of all performed, and preliminary conclusions are drawn. These preliminary conclusions are further tested under uncertainty, using two different but relatively similar simulation models. The main conclusions are that demand side measures are necessary, but not sufficient. The topic is so complex and uncertain that simple (combinations of) basic policies will not hold in all circumstances, which is why this topic requires further exploration and policy testing under deep uncertainty.