Small Effects: The Indispensable Foundation for a Cumulative Psychological Science
Small Effects: The Indispensable Foundation for a Cumulative Psychological Science
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DOI：
10.1177/1745691620984483
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发表时间：
2021-07-02
影响因子：
12.6
通讯作者：
Rentfrow, Peter J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Goetz, Friedrich M.;Gosling, Samuel D.;Rentfrow, Peter J.
我们借鉴遗传学研究，认为复杂的心理现象很可能是由多种原因决定的，任何单独的原因都可能只有很小的影响。在此基础上，我们强调出版文化的危险，继续要求大的影响。首先，它奖励不太可能是真实的的夸大效果，并鼓励可能产生这种效果的做法。其次，它忽略了最有可能是真实的的小影响，阻碍了识别和理解复杂心理现象的实际决定因素的尝试。然后，我们解释了小的影响，这可能会产生重大的后果，特别是在规模和随着时间的推移考虑的理论和实践的相关性。最后，我们提出了学者们可以利用这些见解来推进心理学研究和实践的方法（即，利用大数据、机器学习和众包科学的力量;促进严格的预注册，包括预先指定感兴趣的最小效应量;将效应置于情境中;改变文化规范以奖励准确和有意义的效应，而不是夸大和不可靠的效应）。只有当小的影响被接受为常态，而不是例外，才能建立一个可靠的和可重复的累积心理科学。
We draw on genetics research to argue that complex psychological phenomena are most likely determined by a multitude of causes and that any individual cause is likely to have only a small effect. Building on this, we highlight the dangers of a publication culture that continues to demand large effects. First, it rewards inflated effects that are unlikely to be real and encourages practices likely to yield such effects. Second, it overlooks the small effects that are most likely to be real, hindering attempts to identify and understand the actual determinants of complex psychological phenomena. We then explain the theoretical and practical relevance of small effects, which can have substantial consequences, especially when considered at scale and over time. Finally, we suggest ways in which scholars can harness these insights to advance research and practices in psychology (i.e., leveraging the power of big data, machine learning, and crowdsourcing science; promoting rigorous preregistration, including prespecifying the smallest effect size of interest; contextualizing effects; changing cultural norms to reward accurate and meaningful effects rather than exaggerated and unreliable effects). Only once small effects are accepted as the norm, rather than the exception, can a reliable and reproducible cumulative psychological science be built.