Risky Development: Increasing Exposure to Natural Hazards in the United States.
Risky Development: Increasing Exposure to Natural Hazards in the United States.
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DOI：
10.1029/2020ef001795
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发表时间：
2021-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Travis WR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Iglesias V;Braswell AE;Rossi MW;Joseph MB;McShane C;Cattau M;Koontz MJ;McGlinchy J;Nagy RC;Balch J;Leyk S;Travis WR
自然灾害造成的损失正在急剧增加，每年都有更多的财产和关键基础设施受到影响。尽管某些灾害的规模、强度和/或频率有所增加，但发展助长了这种不可持续的趋势，因为当自然扰动遇到脆弱的资产和人口时就会出现灾害。为了诊断导致美国本土 (CONUS) 风险增加的发展模式，我们确定了地震、洪水、飓风、龙卷风和野火灾害热点，并将其与历史聚落数据汇编数据集中的土地利用信息叠加。我们的结果显示，57% 的建筑物（住宅、学校、医院、办公楼等）位于危险热点地区，仅占美国本土面积的三分之一，并且约有 150 万座建筑物位于存在两种或两种以上危险的热点地区。这些临界水平的暴露是几十年持续增长的遗产，表明我们无能力、缺乏知识或不愿意限制危险地区的发展。即使不考虑气候变化的影响，这些地区的发展仍然比国家基准线增长得更快，预示着未来损失更大。美国本土超过一半的建筑面临潜在的毁灭性自然灾害 灾害热点地区的增长率超过全国趋势 可以通过考虑多种灾害、缓解历史和建筑环境的精细数据来改进风险评估
Losses from natural hazards are escalating dramatically, with more properties and critical infrastructure affected each year. Although the magnitude, intensity, and/or frequency of certain hazards has increased, development contributes to this unsustainable trend, as disasters emerge when natural disturbances meet vulnerable assets and populations. To diagnose development patterns leading to increased exposure in the conterminous United States (CONUS), we identified earthquake, flood, hurricane, tornado, and wildfire hazard hotspots, and overlaid them with land use information from the Historical Settlement Data Compilation data set. Our results show that 57% of structures (homes, schools, hospitals, office buildings, etc.) are located in hazard hotspots, which represent only a third of CONUS area, and ∼1.5 million buildings lie in hotspots for two or more hazards. These critical levels of exposure are the legacy of decades of sustained growth and point to our inability, lack of knowledge, or unwillingness to limit development in hazardous zones. Development in these areas is still growing more rapidly than the baseline rates for the nation, portending larger future losses even if the effects of climate change are not considered. More than half of the structures in the conterminous United States are exposed to potentially devastating natural hazards Growth rates in hazard hotspots exceed the national trend Risk assessments can be improved by considering multiple hazards, mitigation history and fine‐scale data on the built environment