COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock
COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock
复制标题
DOI：
10.1353/eca.2020.0012
复制
发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Davis, Steven J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barrero, Jose Maria;Bloom, Nicholas;Davis, Steven J.
我们就COVID-19冲击对影响和时间的重新分配效应提出了几项证据。首先，从2020年3月1日到5月中旬，每十次裁员就有三到四次新员工。第二，我们预计，在此期间，三分之一或更多的裁员是永久性的，因为失业者不会回到他们以前的雇主的旧工作。第三，企业层面的一年期预测意味着，2020年4月至6月的预期就业和销售重新分配率是疫情前的两至五倍。第四，在疫情结束后，全职在家工作的天数将从2019年的5%增加到15%以上。我们还记录了许多公司因疫情而增加的就业机会，以及跨公司股权回报离散度因疫情而急剧上升。在发展证据之后，我们考虑对经济前景和政策的影响。超过工人收入的失业救济金水平，无论雇主的商业前景如何都补贴员工保留的政策，以及工人流动和企业形成的障碍阻碍了对COVID-19冲击的重新分配反应。
We develop several pieces of evidence about the reallocative effects of the COVID-19 shock on impact and over time. First, the shock caused three to four new hires for every ten layoffs from March 1 to mid-May 2020. Second, we project that one-third or more of the layoffs during this period are permanent in the sense that job losers won't return to their old jobs at their previous employers. Third, firm-level forecasts at a one-year horizon imply rates of expected job and sales reallocation that are two to five times larger from April to June 2020 than before the pandemic. Fourth, full days working from home will triple from 5 percent of all workdays in 2019 to more than 15 percent after the pandemic ends. We also document pandemic-induced job gains at many firms and a sharp rise in cross-firm equity return dispersion in reaction to the pandemic. After developing the evidence, we consider implications for the economic outlook and for policy. Unemployment benefit levels that exceed worker earnings, policies that subsidize employee retention irrespective of the employer's commercial outlook, and barriers to worker mobility and business formation impede reallocation responses to the COVID-19 shock.