The scaling of contact rates with population density for the infectious disease models
The scaling of contact rates with population density for the infectious disease models
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DOI：
10.1016/j.mbs.2013.04.013
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发表时间：
2013-08-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Eckhoff, Philip
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hu, Hao;Nigmatulina, Karima;Eckhoff, Philip
在一个地理区域内，个人之间的接触率和模式驱动着直接传播的病原体的传播，因此必须了解和估计接触情况，以模拟疾病动态。在均匀混合假设下，接触率与种群密度之间的关系通常采用两种机制之一：密度依赖性或频率依赖性。基于现有的人口阈值和人类流动模式的证据，我们制定了一个空间接触模型，以描述适当的传输形式与初始增长在低密度和饱和在较高的密度。我们表明，这两种机制是极端的情况下，不捕捉真实的人口流动在所有尺度。人类和野生动物疾病的经验数据表明，非线性函数在观察全谱密度时可能更有效。这一估计可适用于一般活动中人口混合的大区域。对于密度异常大的人群（例如，交通枢纽、体育场或群众集会），缺乏有组织的社会接触结构，使物理接触偏离了空间接触模型的一个特殊情况--动力学气体分子碰撞的动力学。在这种情况下，具有货车德瓦尔斯修正的理想气体模型非常适合;现有的运动观察数据和个体之间的接触率是使用动力学理论估计的。接触率缩放与人口密度的完整画面可能有助于澄清在异构的，大规模的空间系统中的传输率的定义。(C)2013作者爱思唯尔公司出版All rights reserved.
Contact rates and patterns among individuals in a geographic area drive transmission of directly-transmitted pathogens, making it essential to understand and estimate contacts for simulation of disease dynamics. Under the uniform mixing assumption, one of two mechanisms is typically used to describe the relation between contact rate and population density: density-dependent or frequency-dependent. Based on existing evidence of population threshold and human mobility patterns, we formulated a spatial contact model to describe the appropriate form of transmission with initial growth at low density and saturation at higher density. We show that the two mechanisms are extreme cases that do not capture real population movement across all scales. Empirical data of human and wildlife diseases indicate that a nonlinear function may work better when looking at the full spectrum of densities. This estimation can be applied to large areas with population mixing in general activities. For crowds with unusually large densities (e.g., transportation terminals, stadiums, or mass gatherings), the lack of organized social contact structure deviates the physical contacts towards a special case of the spatial contact model - the dynamics of kinetic gas molecule collision. In this case, an ideal gas model with van der Waals correction fits well; existing movement observation data and the contact rate between individuals is estimated using kinetic theory. A complete picture of contact rate scaling with population density may help clarify the definition of transmission rates in heterogeneous, large-scale spatial systems. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.