Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C
Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C
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DOI：
10.1038/nature18307
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发表时间：
2016-06-30
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Meinshausen, Malte
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rogelj, Joeri;den Elzen, Michel;Meinshausen, Malte
巴黎气候协议旨在将全球变暖控制在远低于2摄氏度的范围内，并“继续努力”将其控制在1.5摄氏度以内。为了实现这一目标，各国提交了预期的国家自主贡献(INDC)，概述了它们在2020年后的气候行动。在这里，我们评估了当前的INDC在减少温室气体排放总量方面的影响，它对实现巴黎气候协议的温度目标的影响，以及超额完成的潜在选择。与当前的政策相比，INDC总体上降低了温室气体排放，但仍意味着到2100年全球变暖的中位数将达到2.6-3.1摄氏度。可以实现更多，因为该协议规定，随着时间的推移，无论是在雄心还是在范围内，减少温室气体排放的目标都会得到加强。需要通过更多的国家、国家以下和非国家行动大幅加强或超额提供现有的国家发展中国家，以保持实现将升温控制在远低于2摄氏度的目标的合理机会。
The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to "pursue efforts" to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6-3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.