Estimating the Economic Effects of the Early Covid-19 Emergency Response in Cities Using Intracity Travel Intensity Data
Estimating the Economic Effects of the Early Covid-19 Emergency Response in Cities Using Intracity Travel Intensity Data
复制标题
使用城市内旅行强度数据估算城市早期 Covid-19 应急响应的经济影响
DOI：
10.1007/s13753-022-00393-7
复制
发表时间：
2022-02-18
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Tatano H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yang L;Wei C;Jiang X;Ye Q;Tatano H
2019冠状病毒病大流行初期，中国实施了最严格和最严重的应急响应。为了解紧急应变策略对经济系统的影响，本研究提出一种利用城市内部交通强度数据的同步整体估计方法。总体效果由有无应急响应的城市内出行强度差异表示。利用历史数据和时间序列分析方法，对实施应急响应后的城市内出行强度与未实施应急响应时的预测城市内出行强度进行了比较。基于数据的可得性，计算了中国33个省级区域内360个城市的损失率，定义为城市内部出行强度损失的比例。我们发现，应急响应后30天，21%的城市恢复80%以上，10%的城市恢复90%以上;应急响应后45天，360个城市中83%以上的城市恢复80%。定量研究了国内生产总值损失率与出行强度损失率之间的相关性，论证了城市内部出行强度损失率的代表性。这一指标还被用来分析对经济影响的空间和时间模式。本研究的结果可帮助我们了解早期COVID-19应急响应所造成的经济影响，该方法可作为快速和实时经济损失估计的参考，以支持大流行条件下的应急响应决策。
In the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, China implemented the most stringent and serious emergency response. To understand the effect of such an emergency response strategy on the economic system, this study proposed a simultaneous overall estimation method using intracity travel intensity data. The overall effect is represented by the difference between intracity travel intensity with and without the emergency response. Using historical data and time series analysis, we compared intracity travel intensity post China’s implementation of the emergency response with predicted intracity travel intensity without such a response. The loss rates, defined by the proportion of intracity travel intensity loss, were calculated for 360 cities within 33 provincial-level regions in China based on data availability. We found that 30 days after the emergency response, 21% of the cities saw over 80% recovery and 10% of the cities showed more than 90% recovery; 45 days after the emergency response, more than 83% of the 360 cities witnessed 80% recovery. The correlation between gross domestic production loss rate and travel intensity loss rate was studied quantitatively to demonstrate the representativeness of the intracity travel intensity loss rate. This indicator was also used to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of the effects on the economy. The results of this study can help us understand the economic effects caused by the early Covid-19 emergency response and the method can be a reference for fast and real-time economic loss estimation to support emergency response decision making under pandemic conditions.
登录
查看更多内容
DOI：
10.1186/s12940-016-0135-y
发表时间：
2016-04-27
期刊：
Environmental health : a global access science source
影响因子：
--
作者：
Cowie CT;Ding D;Rolfe MI;Mayne DJ;Jalaludin B;Bauman A;Morgan GG
通讯作者：
Morgan GG
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Craig AT;Joshua CA;Sio AR;Teobasi B;Dofai A;Dalipanda T;Hardie K;Kaldor J;Kolbe A
通讯作者：
Kolbe A
DOI：
10.1016/j.trip.2020.100121
发表时间：
2020-05-01
影响因子：
--
作者：
De Vos, Jonas
通讯作者：
De Vos, Jonas
影响因子：
6.1
作者：
Borkowski, Przemyslaw;Jazdzewska-Gutta, Magdalena;Szmelter-Jarosz, Agnieszka
通讯作者：
Szmelter-Jarosz, Agnieszka
影响因子：
34.3
作者：
Erkhembayar, Ryenchindorj;Dickinson, Emma;Manaseki-Holland, Semira
通讯作者：
Manaseki-Holland, Semira