Accounting for Changes in the Homeownership Rate
Accounting for Changes in the Homeownership Rate
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1468-2354.2009.00544.x
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发表时间：
2007-08
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Matthew S. Chambers;Carlos Garriga;D. Schlagenhauf
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Matthew S. Chambers;Carlos Garriga;D. Schlagenhauf
在经历了相对稳定的三十年之后，住房拥有率在 1994 年至 2005 年期间有所上升，达到了历史新高。本文的目的是通过研究人口因素变化和抵押贷款市场创新减少首付要求所发挥的作用，来解释所观察到的所有权繁荣。为了衡量这些因素的总体和分配影响，我们构建了一个与住房重叠的定量一般均衡模型。我们发现，从长远来看，引入新抵押贷款产品对总住房拥有率的重要性在 56% 到 70% 之间。人口因素占这一变化的 16% 至 31%。转型分析表明，距离长期均衡越远，人口因素发挥的作用就越重要，但不是主导性的。从分配的角度来看，抵押贷款市场创新对解释年轻家庭参与率变化有更大的影响，而人口因素似乎是理解老年家庭参与率变化的关键。我们的分析表明，理解住房拥有率上升的关键是抵押贷款合同范围的扩大。我们通过考虑二战后抵押贷款融资的变化来测试这一结果的稳健性。我们发现，取代气球合同的传统固定利率抵押贷款的引入，至少占该时期观察到的住房拥有率增长的百分之五十。
After three decades of being relatively constant, the homeownership rate increased over the period 1994 to 2005 to attain record highs. The objective of this paper is to account for the observed boom in ownership by examining the role played changes in demographic factors and innovations in the mortgage market which lessened downpayment requirements. To measure the aggregate and distributional impact of these factors, we construct a quantitative general equilibrium overlapping generation model with housing. We find that the long-run importance of the introduction of new mortgage products for the aggregate homeownership rate ranges from 56 and 70 percent. Demographic factors account for between 16 and 31 percent of the change. Transitional analysis suggests that demographic factors play a more important, but not dominant, role the further away from the long-run equilibrium. From a distributional perspective, mortgage market innovations have a larger impact explaining participation rate changes of younger households, while demographic factors seem to be the key to understanding the participation rate changes of older households. Our analysis suggests that the key to understand the increase in the homeownership rate is the expansion of the set of mortgage contracts. We test the robustness of this result by considering changes in mortgage financing after World War II. We find that the introduction of the conventional fixed rate mortgage, which replaced balloon contacts, accounts for at least fifty percent of the observed increase in homeownership during that period.