Electoral Performance by Post-Rebel Parties
Electoral Performance by Post-Rebel Parties
复制标题
叛乱后政党的选举表现
作者：
Carrie Manning;I. Smith
本文探讨了影响后反叛政党选举表现的因素。我们提出了新的研究跟踪这些群体在1990年至2016年的国家立法选举的参与。我们的完整数据集涵盖了37个国家的77个政党和286次选举。它包括在世界每个区域和政治历史不同的国家中，在不同长度和强度的冲突之后形成的政党，这些冲突具有不同的不相容性。我们的分析表明，反叛后政党在选举初期的表现对未来的表现有很大影响，而竞争-被老对手政党排挤-和战前的政治组织经验有很大的积极影响，特别是对那些一直赢得10%以上席位的政党。但是，特别是对于那些总是赢得很低席位份额的政党来说，组织特征越来越多地屈服于环境因素，最重要的是竞争对手的存在和选举规则对代表权的障碍。
This article explores the factors affecting post-rebel party electoral performance. We present new research tracking the participation of these groups in national legislative elections from 1990 to 2016. Our full data set covers 77 parties and 286 elections in 37 countries. It includes parties formed after conflicts of varying length and intensity, with different incompatibilities, in every region of the world, and in countries with disparate political histories. Our analysis suggests that post-rebel parties’ early electoral performance strongly affects future performance, and that competition – crowd-out by older rival parties – and pre-war organizational experience in politics have a significant positive effect, particularly for those parties that are consistently winning more than about 10 per cent of seats. But especially for parties that consistently win very low seat shares, organizational characteristics yield increasingly to environmental factors, most importantly the presence of rival parties and the barriers to representation presented by electoral rules.