An agent-based modeling approach applied to the spread of cholera
An agent-based modeling approach applied to the spread of cholera
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.08.027
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发表时间：
2014-12-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Crooks, Andrew T.;Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew B.
霍乱是一种肠道疾病，其特征是腹泻和严重脱水。虽然霍乱主要是在能够提供清洁水、适当个人卫生和适当环境卫生的地区被消灭，但在非洲和亚洲的许多地区，霍乱仍然是一个持续的威胁。在本文中，我们开发了一个基于代理的模型，探讨了霍乱在肯尼亚达达布难民营的传播。恶劣的卫生和住房条件导致该难民营内经常爆发霍乱。我们通过明确表示人类与环境之间的相互作用来模拟霍乱的传播，并使用易感-暴露-暴露-传播模型来模拟流行病的传播。该模型的结果表明，霍乱的传播从受污染的水源呈放射状增长，季节性降雨可能导致霍乱暴发的出现。这一建模工作突出了基于代理的建模在人道主义背景下探索霍乱传播的潜力。(C)2014爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
Cholera is an intestinal disease and is characterized by diarrhea and severe dehydration. While cholera has mainly been eliminated in regions that can provide clean water, adequate hygiene and proper sanitation; it remains a constant threat in many parts of Africa and Asia. Within this paper, we develop an agent-based model that explores the spread of cholera in the Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya. Poor sanitation and housing conditions contribute to frequent incidents of cholera outbreaks within this camp. We model the spread of cholera by explicitly representing the interaction between humans and their environment, and the spread of the epidemic using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model. Results from the model show that the spread of cholera grows radially from contaminated water sources and seasonal rains can cause the emergence of cholera outbreaks. This modeling effort highlights the potential of agent-based modeling to explore the spread of cholera in a humanitarian context. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.