2050 ASEAN Electricity Demand: Case Study in Indonesia and Cambodia
2050 ASEAN Electricity Demand: Case Study in Indonesia and Cambodia
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DOI：
10.1007/978-4-431-53910-0_4
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
N. A. Utama;K. Ishihara;Qi Zhang;T. Tezuka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. A. Utama;K. Ishihara;Qi Zhang;T. Tezuka
预计东盟（东南亚国家联盟）成员国将在未来 15-20 年内成为石油净进口国。因此，预测该地区未来的电力需求非常重要。然而，预测未来电力需求会带来各种问题，其中之一就是其不确定性。本研究旨在减少预测东盟最少国家和发展中国家未来电力需求的不确定性。引入经济与能源之间的时间序列关系作为关键参数和GDP参数的输入，因果关系从经济到电力以及经济和电力双向运行。然后将结果用于预测未来电力需求趋势并用作参考场景。政策、家庭规模、发电成本等作为关键假设。格兰杰因果检验被证明可以有效预测柬埔寨未来的电力需求趋势，2005-2008年期间与实际数据相比误差仅为5-7%。而在印度尼西亚，2000-2008年的预测与实际需求的误差平均为8%。
ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations) member countries are predicted to become a net importer of oil in the next 15–20 years. Therefore it is important to predict the future electricity demand in the region. However, predicting future electricity demand entail various issues and, one of them is its uncertainty. This study serves to reduce the uncertainties of predicting future electricity demand in the least and developing countries under ASEAN.Introducing the time-series relationship between economic and energy as an input in key parameters and GDP parameters on causality runs from economic to electricity and bi-directional economic and electricity. The result is then applied to predict the future electricity demand trend and is used as reference scenario. Policy, household size, power generation cost, etc are used as key assumption.Granger-causality test proves to be useful in order to predict the future electricity demand trend in Cambodia with the errors during 2005–2008 periods merely 5–7% compares to the actual data. While in Indonesia the error for 2000–2008 predictions compare to the actual demand which is accounted 8% in average.