STOKING THE FIRES - CO2 EMISSIONS AND ECONOMIC-GROWTH
STOKING THE FIRES - CO2 EMISSIONS AND ECONOMIC-GROWTH
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DOI：
10.1016/0047-2727(94)01449-x
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发表时间：
1995-05-01
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
SELDEN, TM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
HOLTZEAKIN, D;SELDEN, TM
我们研究了经济发展与二氧化碳排放之间的关系，二氧化碳是一种对全球变暖预测至关重要的温室气体。从全球面板数据得出的估计结果表明，随着人均国内生产总值的提高，二氧化碳排放的边际倾向（MPE）在递减。尽管如此，在可预见的未来，全球二氧化碳排放将继续以每年1.8%的速度增长，这一结果对平均产出增长并不敏感。相反，排放持续增长是因为产出和人口将在边际排放倾向较高的低收入国家增长最为迅速。后一特征强调了减排政策的分配影响。
We examine the relationship between economic development and carbon dioxide emissions, a greenhouse gas central to global warming predictions. Estimates derived from global panel data suggest a diminishing marginal propensity to emit (MPE) carbon dioxide as GDP per capita rises. Despite this, global carbon dioxide emissions growth will continue at 1.8 percent per annum for the foreseeable future, a result that is not sensitive to average output growth. Instead, emissions growth continues because output and population will grow most rapidly in lower-income nations with high MPEs. This latter feature emphasizes the distributional consequences of policies to reduce emissions.