Sensitivity of river ecological baseflow to climate change in arid areas
Sensitivity of river ecological baseflow to climate change in arid areas
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DOI：
10.3389/fenvs.2022.1080810
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发表时间：
2023-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Keke Hu;Jian He;Sulitan Danierhan;Yiliyasi Tuerxun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Keke Hu;Jian He;Sulitan Danierhan;Yiliyasi Tuerxun
河流生态基流是河流生态系统健康稳定的关键，随着全球气候变化的加剧显得尤为重要。以新疆尼雅河流域为研究对象，基于1958 - 2021年气象资料和1978 - 2018年水文资料，确定Tennant方法是流域生态基流的最佳计算方法，利用M-K检验分析流域生态基流突变特征和气候变化特征，建立了气候变化的生态基流回归响应和敏感性系数模型。结果表明：1978—2018年，尼雅河流域75%的生态基流在15 ~ 31 m3•s−1之间，年平均气温以0.22°C•(10a)−1的速率上升了1.6℃，年降水量以0.98 mm•(10a)−1的速率增加了6.3 mm。回归模型预测精度较好，r2大于0.7，生态基流对气候变化的响应滞后，降水对生态基流的影响较大。流域敏感系数从上游到下游呈递减趋势，年最大值在2010年，最小值在1984年，月最大值在4月，月最小值在11月。根据气候变化趋势和流域社会用水情况，提出了基于季节和水文期的生态基流保护目标和措施，为该及类似地区河流的实际水资源管理和调度提供依据。
River ecological baseflow is key to river ecosystem health and stability and has become particularly important with global climate change aggravation. By considering the Niya River Basin in Xinjiang, based on meteorological data from 1958 to 2021 and hydrological data from 1978 to 2018, the Tennant method was determined to be the best basin ecological baseflow calculation method, the M–K test was used to analyze the abrupt ecological baseflow and climate change characteristics, and the ecological baseflow regression response and sensitivity coefficient models concerning climate change were established. The results showed that 75% of the ecological baseflow in the Niya River Basin ranged from 15 to 31 m3•s−1 in 1978–2018, the average annual temperature increased by 1.6°C at a 0.22°C•(10a)−1 rate, and the annual precipitation increased by 6.3 mm at a 0.98 mm•(10a)−1 rate. The prediction accuracy of the regression model was good, R 2 exceeded 0.7, the ecological baseflow response to climate change lagged, and precipitation greatly impacted ecological baseflow. The basin sensitivity coefficient showed a decreasing trend from upstream to downstream, with the annual maximum value in 2010, the minimum value in 1984, the monthly maximum value in April and the monthly minimum value in November. Based on the climate change trend and the social water use of the basin, the ecological baseflow protection targets and measures were proposed according to the season and the hydrological period for actual water resource management and scheduling of the river in this and similar regions.