Monitoring and adaptive resistance management
Monitoring and adaptive resistance management
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DOI：
10.2307/3099978
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发表时间：
2002-10-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Ives, AR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Andow, DA;Ives, AR
适应性管理策略可以用来对冲失败的科学假设的高剂量加避难所的战略管理欧洲玉米螟Bt玉米的抗性。这将需要敏感的监测，加上有效的适应性管理干预措施。利用理论模型，我们认为隐性抗性等位基因的检测频率必须小于或等于5 × 10（-3），以提供足够的时间来适应管理。对监测成本的分析表明，F-2筛选是监测Bt玉米隐性抗性的最具成本效益的方法。如果阻力占主导地位，现场筛选是最具成本效益的方法。这两种方法都可以检测和测量频率小于或等于5 × 10（-3）的电阻，每个站点的费用约为5000美元。可以采取两种适应性反应：（1）减少抗性等位基因的选择优势或（2）修改交配系统，使更少的抗性等位基因传递给后代。假设检测到抗性和采取适应性反应之间有两年的时间延迟，我们发现，无论是增加避难所的大小到66%（从20%），或减少生存和繁殖的欧洲玉米螟从Bt玉米田的90%可以延长10代的易感性。通过改变迁移率和吸引易感雄性进入Bt玉米田来修改交配系统可以将易感性延长20代以上。这些结果表明，适应性抗性管理可以提高Bt玉米的耐久性。
An adaptive management strategy can be used to hedge against failures in the scientific assumptions underlying the high-dose plus refuge strategy for managing the resistance of the European corn borer to Bt corn. This will require sensitive monitoring coupled with effective adaptive management interventions. Using a theoretical model, we suggest that recessive resistance alleles must be detected at frequencies of less than or equal to5 X 10(-3) to provide enough time to adapt management. Analysis of the costs of monitoring indicates that an F-2 screen is the most cost effective method for monitoring recessive resistance to Bt corn. If resistance is dominant, an in-field screen is the most cost effective method. Both methods can detect and measure resistance at frequencies of less than or equal to5 X 10(-3) for similar to$5000 (U.S. dollars) per site. Two kinds of adaptive responses can be taken: (1) reducing the selective advantage of the resistance allele or (2) modifying the mating system so fewer resistance alleles are passed on to future generations. Assuming there is a two-year time delay between detecting resistance and taking an adaptive response, we found that either increasing refuge size to 66% (from 20%), or decreasing survival and reproduction of European corn borers from Bt corn fields by 90% can prolong susceptibility by 10 generations. Modification of the mating system by changing movement rates and attracting susceptible males into Bt corn fields could prolong susceptibility for >20 generations. These results suggest that adaptive resistance management could increase the durability of Bt corn.