Projected increase in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis from 2015 to 2040.
Projected increase in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis from 2015 to 2040.
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DOI：
10.1038/ncomms12408
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发表时间：
2016-08-11
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Traynor BJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Arthur KC;Calvo A;Price TR;Geiger JT;Chiò A;Traynor BJ
虽然肌萎缩侧索硬化症（ALS）是相对罕见的，这种疾病的社会经济意义是广泛的。因此，预测ALS的流行病学趋势至关重要。迄今为止，很少有已发表的研究试图估计未来几年ALS病例的数量和分布。地球仪ALS病例数量将从2015年的222，801例增加到2040年的376，674例，增幅为69%。这一增长主要是由于人口老龄化，特别是在发展中国家。由于医疗保健和经济状况的改善，这一预测可能被低估了。研究结果应用于为医疗保健政策提供信息，以更有效地分配医疗保健资源。 肌萎缩侧索硬化症（ALS）的社会经济负担很高，但未来几年的预计病例数尚不清楚。在这里，作者估计到2040年ALS病例的数量和分布，并显示病例预计会增加，特别是在发展中国家。
Although amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is relatively rare, the socioeconomic significance of the disease is extensive. It is therefore vital to project the epidemiologic trend of ALS. To date, there have been few published studies attempting to estimate the number and distribution of ALS cases in the upcoming years. Here we show that the number of ALS cases across the globe will increase from 222,801 in 2015 to 376,674 in 2040, representing an increase of 69%. This increase is predominantly due to ageing of the population, particularly among developing nations. This projection is likely an underestimate due to improving healthcare and economic conditions. The results should be used to inform healthcare policy to more efficiently allocate healthcare resources. The socioeconomic burden of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is high, but the projected number of cases in the upcoming years is unclear. Here, the authors estimate the number and distribution of ALS cases to 2040, and show that cases are projected to increase, particularly in developing nations.