Combined Hydraulic and Black-Box Models for Flood Forecasting in Urban Drainage Systems
Combined Hydraulic and Black-Box Models for Flood Forecasting in Urban Drainage Systems
复制标题
城市排水系统洪水预报的水力和黑箱组合模型
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Jianqing Yang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Bruen;Jianqing Yang
Rapid urbanization and its implications for both water quality issues and floods have increased the need for modeling of urban drainage systems. Many operational models are based on deterministic solutions of hydraulic equations. Improving such models by adding a “black-box” component to deal with any systematic structure in the residuals is proposed. In this study, a conventional deterministic stormwater drainage network model is first developed for a rapidly developing catchment using the HYDROWORKS (now called Infoworks) package, from Wallingford Software in the United Kingdom. However, despite the generally satisfactory results, the HYDROWORKS model tended to underestimate the flow volume. In this paper, a black-box or “systems” model is fitted to the hydraulic urban drainage model in order to improve its overall efficiency. A study was conducted of suitable black-box models, which included the nonlinear artificial neural network model (ANN), and the linear time series models of Box and Jenkins in 197...
