Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: Results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for CMIP6-PMIP4
Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: Results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for CMIP6-PMIP4
复制标题
末次间冰期气候的大尺度特征：评估 CMIP6-PMIP4 lig127k 模拟的结果
DOI：
10.5194/cp-2019-174-supplement
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Weipeng Zheng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Otto‐Bliesner;E. Brady;Anni Zhao;C. Brierley;Y. Axford;E. Capron;A. Govin;J. Hoffman;Elizabeth B. Isaacs;M. Kageyama;Paulo Scussolini;P. Tzedakis;C. Williams;E. Wolff;A. Abe‐Ouchi;P. Braconnot;S. Buarque;Jian Cao;A. Vernal;Maria Vittoria Guarino;Chuncheng Guo;A. Legrande;Gerrit Lohmann;K. Meissner;L. Menviel;K. Nisancioglu;Ryouta O’ishi;D. Mélia;Xioaoxu Shi;M. Sicard;L. Sime;R. Tomas;E. Volodin;Nicolas Yeung;Qiong Zhang;Zhonghi Zhang;Weipeng Zheng
<p>使用基于物理的工具对古气候进行建模，越来越被视为对用于预测未来气候变化的模型进行强有力的样本外测试。CMIP 6的新功能是Tier 1 lig 127 k实验，旨在解决气候对比中全新世实验更强的轨道强迫的响应，使用相同的最先进的模型并遵循共同的实验协议。我们提出了一个多模式集成的17个气候模式，所有这些（除了两个）也完成了CMIP 6甲板实验。这些模式的平衡气候敏感性（ECS）从2.1到5.3 C不等。的季节性特征的太阳辐射异常的结果在强烈的变暖的北方半球（NH）大陆的lig 127 k合奏相比，piControl在6月至7月至8月和大大减少的最低（8月至9月）夏季海冰范围在北极。多模式的结果表明，夏季季风降水和面积范围增强，在北方半球和南半球减少。这些响应是更大的lig 127 k比中全新世模拟预期的更大的日射异常在127万年比6万年。</p><p>新的合成地面温度和降水，目标为127万年，已开发的多模式合奏进行比较。lig 127 k模式集合和数据重建是在加拿大，斯堪的纳维亚半岛，北大西洋和降水在北方大陆夏季温度异常很好的协议。模型数据的比较和不匹配点，以进一步研究的敏感性，在指定的边界条件和不确定性和稀疏覆盖的模拟在当前代理重建的不确定性。</p><p>CMIP 6-PMIP 4 lig 127 k模拟与代理记录相结合，对未来预测季风、表面温度、北极海冰和格陵兰冰盖稳定性的信心具有潜在影响。</p>
<p>The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to CMIP6 is the Tier 1 lig127k experiment, designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models and following a common experimental protocol. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which (except for two) have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments. The Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 2.1 to 5.3°C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong warming over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the piControl in June-July-August and a much-reduced minimum (August-September) summer sea ice extent in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation and areal extent in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 ka than 6 ka.</p><p>New syntheses for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model-data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the specified boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions.</p><p>The CMIP6-PMIP4 lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, have potential implications for confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, Arctic sea ice, and the stability of the Greenland ice sheet.</p>
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Melles, Martin;Brigham-Grette, Julie;Wagner, Bernd
通讯作者：
Wagner, Bernd