Prediction of rapid intensification for land-falling extremely severe cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal
Prediction of rapid intensification for land-falling extremely severe cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal
复制标题
孟加拉湾登陆极强气旋风暴快速增强的预测
DOI：
10.1007/s00704-022-03923-x
复制
发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
P. Bhaskaran
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. S. Singh;Ambily Thankachan;K. Thatiparthi;M. Reshma;Jiya Albert;S. Bonthu;P. Bhaskaran
在过去的30年（1990年至2020年）中，由于气候变化，在孟加拉湾（BoB）地区形成的所有极其严重的气旋风暴（ESCS）都经历了快速加强（RI）。因此，有必要进行详细的评估，以预测和确定强度的快速变化，尤其是对沿海地区产生直接社会经济影响的 BoB RI。本研究使用天气研究和预报 (WRF) 模型对 BoB 地区 ESCS 的强度和 RI 进行了详细评估。使用常规和卫星辐射同化观测结果，以改善四个 ESCS 的初始条件（Mala，2006；Sidr，2007；Phailin，2013 和 Hudhud，2014）。数值实验使用水平分辨率为 27 公里和 9 公里、垂直分辨率为 73 级的双嵌套域。预测的强度、结构和风暴路径与现有观测结果非常一致。第 1 天到第 4 天最大地面风 (MSW) 的平均绝对误差 (MAE) 分别为 5 m s−1、6 m s−1、5 m s−1 和 5 m s−1，平均初始强度误差约为 4.5 m s−1。结果表明，WRF 模型很好地理解了 ESCS 的 RI，对不同情况的预测显示出显着差异。在大多数情况下，RI 的预测不足。 WRF 模型在预测 RI 方面的整体性能相当不错，根据本研究考虑的四种情况，检测概率 (POD) 和误报率 (FAR) 的估计统计数据分别约为 68% 和 21%。这项研究还提出了预测的反射率和加热速率、散度、水凝物、垂直风和温度异常的垂直剖面。风暴的平均路径误差在24至96小时之间变化，分别在75至135公里之间，而平均登陆时间和位置误差分别约为3小时和69公里。这项研究还强调需要重新评估 WRF 模型在预测 RI 期间 ESCS 相对于 BOB 的轨迹、结构和强度方面的性能。
During the past 30 years (1990–2020), all extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCS) that formed over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) region had undergone rapid intensification (RI) attributed due to climate change. A detailed evaluation is therefore necessary to forecast and ascertain the rapid changes in intensity especially the RI over BoB that has direct socio-economic consequences in coastal regions. This study performed a detailed evaluation on the intensity and RI of ESCS over the BoB region using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Observations were assimilated using conventional and satellite radiances to improve the initial conditions of four ESCSs (Mala, 2006; Sidr, 2007; Phailin, 2013 and Hudhud, 2014). Numerical experiments used a double-nested domain of 27 and 9 km horizontal resolution with 73 vertical levels. The forecasted intensity, structure, and storm tracks were in good agreement with the available observations. Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of Maximum Surface Winds (MSW) were 5 m s−1, 6 m s−1, 5 m s−1, and 5 m s−1 from Day 1 to Day 4, respectively, with mean initial intensity error of about 4.5 m s−1. Results indicate that RI of ESCS was well apprehended in WRF model showing significant differences in the forecast for different cases. In most of the cases, the RI was under-predicted. The overall performance of WRF model was reasonably good in forecasting RI, and the estimated statistics for Probability of Detection (POD) and False Alarm Rate (FAR) was about 68% and 21%, respectively, based on the four cases considered in this study. Forecasted reflectivity and vertical profiles of heating rate, divergence, hydrometeors, vertical winds, and temperature anomaly are also presented in this study. Mean track error of storms varied between 75 and 135 km, at 24 to 96 h, respectively, while the mean landfall time and positional errors were about 3 h and 69 km, respectively. This research has also highlighted the need for a re-evaluation of the WRF model’s performance in forecasting the track, structure, and intensity of ESCS over BOB during the RI.