Forecasting Labour and Skills Shortages: How Can Projections Better Inform Labour Migration Policies?
Forecasting Labour and Skills Shortages: How Can Projections Better Inform Labour Migration Policies?
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预测劳动力和技能短缺：预测如何更好地为劳动力移民政策提供信息？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Straubhaar
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Boswell;Silvia Stiller;T. Straubhaar
尽管失业率居高不下，但欧洲联盟(欧盟)许多国家在一些部门面临严重的技能和劳动力短缺问题。在大多数情况下，这些短缺是由于劳动力供求不匹配的问题造成的。许多政府已将劳动力迁移计划作为解决短缺问题的一种更迅速、更有效的手段。估计劳动力移民填补劳动力缺口和短缺的需要需要：了解当前和潜在的劳动力和技能短缺的原因；估计和预测其规模；评估减少短缺的不同政策对策，包括移徙政策的适当性。本文侧重于前两点，并以第三点为结束语进行简要论述。作者首先定义了短缺，并对短缺的不同决定因素进行了分类。然后，他们记录了在欧洲国家造成这些短缺的线性和周期性趋势。随后回顾了估计和预测短缺的不同方法，并考察了一些经合组织国家是如何进行这种估计的。总而言之，作者认为哪种短缺需要移民政策作为首选或必需的解决方案。
Many countries in the European Union (EU) face serious skills and labour shortages in a number of sectors, despite persistently high rates of unemployment. In most cases, these shortages result from problems of mismatch between labour demand and supply. Many governments have resorted to labour migration programs as a more rapid and effective means of addressing shortages. Estimating the need for labour immigration to fill labour gaps and shortages requires: an understanding of the causes of current and potential labour and skill shortages; estimation and projection of their scale; and evaluation of the appropriateness of different policy responses for reducing shortages, including migration policy. This paper focuses on the first two points, and concludes with a brief discussion of the third. The authors begin by defining shortages and categorising the different determinants of these. They then document the linear and cyclical trends that generate these shortages in European countries. This is followed by a review of the different methods for estimating and forecasting shortages, and a look at how such estimates are made in a number of OECD countries. In conclusion, the authors consider which kind of shortages warrant migration policy as a preferred or required solution.