The frequency and dynamics of stratospheric sudden warmings in the 21st century
The frequency and dynamics of stratospheric sudden warmings in the 21st century
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DOI：
10.1029/2007jd009571
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发表时间：
2008-08
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Charlton-Perez;L. Polvani;J. Austin;Feng Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Charlton-Perez;L. Polvani;J. Austin;Feng Li
[1]详细研究了地球物理流体动力学实验室（GFDL）化学气候模式（Atmospheric Model With Transport and Chemistry，AMTRAC）对平流层突然变暖（SSW）在未来世纪的预测。两套集成，每一个三成员合奏，进行了分析。第一组是由1960年至2004年观测到的气候强迫驱动的;第二组是由耦合模式运行的气候强迫驱动的，包括代表1990年至2099年未来人为排放中期估计的痕量气体浓度。SSWs的频率有一个小的正趋势，在世纪内达到1个事件/10年，在90%的置信水平下具有统计学显著性，并且在两组模型积分中是一致的。比较20世纪末和21世纪的模式SSW气候学表明，增加是最大的接近冬季结束。相反，在未来的世纪，尽管SSW频率增加，动力学性质并没有显着改变。由于我们的模型的内在复杂性，在SSW频率的预测趋势的直接原因仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。
[1] Changes to stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) over the coming century, as predicted by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) chemistry climate model [Atmospheric Model With Transport and Chemistry (AMTRAC)], are investigated in detail. Two sets of integrations, each a three-member ensemble, are analyzed. The first set is driven with observed climate forcings between 1960 and 2004; the second is driven with climate forcings from a coupled model run, including trace gas concentrations representing a midrange estimate of future anthropogenic emissions between 1990 and 2099. A small positive trend in the frequency of SSWs is found. This trend, amounting to 1 event/decade over a century, is statistically significant at the 90% confidence level and is consistent over the two sets of model integrations. Comparison of the model SSW climatology between the late 20th and 21st centuries shows that the increase is largest toward the end of the winter season. In contrast, the dynamical properties are not significantly altered in the coming century, despite the increase in SSW frequency. Owing to the intrinsic complexity of our model, the direct cause of the predicted trend in SSW frequency remains an open question.