Trends in parameterization, economics and host behaviour in influenza pandemic modelling: a review and reporting protocol.
Trends in parameterization, economics and host behaviour in influenza pandemic modelling: a review and reporting protocol.
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DOI：
10.1186/1742-7622-10-3
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发表时间：
2013-05-07
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Cook AR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carrasco LR;Jit M;Chen MI;Lee VJ;Milne GJ;Cook AR
流感大流行模型研究的数量在过去十年中急剧增加。许多模型结合了现在复杂的参数化和验证技术、经济分析和个人行为。我们在2000年至2011年9月（即2009年大流行之前和之后）发布的流感大流行防范模型中审查了这些方面的趋势，这些模型旨在为流行病管理提供政策见解。我们发现，许多流感大流行模型依赖于以前建模研究的参数，模型很少使用观察到的数据进行验证，也很少应用于低收入国家。有必要建立国际数据共享机制，以促进更广泛地采用模型验证。建模决策的多样性使得系统地比较和评估模型变得困难。我们提出了一个模型特征、构造、参数化和验证方面的协议（CCPV协议），以促进模型报告的系统化，重点是将经济方面和宿主行为结合起来。正如许多其他模式领域中已经存在的那样，模式报告将增加对模式结果的信心以及对其评估和比较的透明度。
The volume of influenza pandemic modelling studies has increased dramatically in the last decade. Many models incorporate now sophisticated parameterization and validation techniques, economic analyses and the behaviour of individuals. We reviewed trends in these aspects in models for influenza pandemic preparedness that aimed to generate policy insights for epidemic management and were published from 2000 to September 2011, i.e. before and after the 2009 pandemic. We find that many influenza pandemics models rely on parameters from previous modelling studies, models are rarely validated using observed data and are seldom applied to low-income countries. Mechanisms for international data sharing would be necessary to facilitate a wider adoption of model validation. The variety of modelling decisions makes it difficult to compare and evaluate models systematically. We propose a model Characteristics, Construction, Parameterization and Validation aspects protocol (CCPV protocol) to contribute to the systematisation of the reporting of models with an emphasis on the incorporation of economic aspects and host behaviour. Model reporting, as already exists in many other fields of modelling, would increase confidence in model results, and transparency in their assessment and comparison.