Anthropogenic impacts on twentieth-century ENSO variability changes
Anthropogenic impacts on twentieth-century ENSO variability changes
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DOI：
10.1038/s43017-023-00427-8
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发表时间：
2023-05
影响因子：
42.1
通讯作者：
W. Cai;B. Ng;Tao Geng;Fan Jia;Lixin Wu;Guojian Wang;Yu Liu;Bolan Gan;Kai Yang;A. Sant
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
W. Cai;B. Ng;Tao Geng;Fan Jia;Lixin Wu;Guojian Wang;Yu Liu;Bolan Gan;Kai Yang;A. Sant
1960年后，受更频繁的强厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件的影响，厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）海表温度（SST）变率增加。然而，这种变化是否与人为变暖有关，在很大程度上是未知的。在这个角度来看，我们认为在几个常用的建模设计，这共同表明温室效应变暖相关的影响后1960年ENSO SST变率的ENSO变率的人为影响。具体而言，对1901-1960年和1961-2020年期间模拟的ENSO SST变率的比较表明，四分之三以上的气候模型产生了1960年后ENSO SST变率的幅度增加，转化为更频繁的强厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件。多个大型集合实验进一步证实，模拟的1960年后ENSO振幅增加（约10%）并不仅仅是由于内部变率。此外，在工业化前CO2水平不变的情况下进行的多世纪模拟表明，观测到的1960年后ENSO变率很高，东太平洋和中太平洋ENSO分别处于最高的2.5和10个单位。为了确定气候变化对厄尔尼诺/南方涛动的影响，还需要进一步改进厄尔尼诺/南方涛动物理模型，查明更多的厄尔尼诺/南方涛动特征在未来和历史上的一致变化，并进行单一强迫的大型集合试验。
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) variability increased after 1960, influenced by more frequent strong El Niño and La Niña events. Whether such changes are linked to anthropogenic warming, however, is largely unknown. In this Perspective, we consider anthropogenic impacts on ENSO variability in several commonly used modelling designs, which collectively suggest a greenhouse warming-related effect on post-1960 ENSO SST variability. Specifically, a comparison of simulated ENSO SST variability between 1901–1960 and 1961–2020 indicates that more than three quarters of climate models produce an amplitude increase in post-1960 ENSO SST variability, translating into more frequent strong El Niño and La Niña events. Multiple large ensemble experiments further confirm that the simulated post-1960 ENSO amplitude increase (approximately 10%) is not solely due to internal variability. Moreover, multicentury-long simulations under a constant pre-industrial CO2level suggest that the observed post-1960 ENSO variability is high, sitting in the highest 2.5 and 10 percentiles for eastern Pacific and central Pacific ENSO, respectively. Improvement in model ENSO physics, identification of consistent future and historical change in additional ENSO characteristics and single-forcing large-ensemble experiments are further needed to ascertain climate change impacts on the ENSO.