A consensus estimate for the ice thickness distribution of all glaciers on Earth
A consensus estimate for the ice thickness distribution of all glaciers on Earth
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DOI：
10.1038/s41561-019-0300-3
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发表时间：
2019-03-01
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Pandit, Ankur
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Farinotti, Daniel;Huss, Matthias;Pandit, Ankur
了解世界冰川的冰厚分布情况是进行一系列研究的基本先决条件。对未来冰川变化的预测、对可用淡水资源的估计或对潜在海平面上升的评估，都需要对冰川厚度进行准确的限制。以往对全球冰川体积的估计大多基于冰川面积和体积之间的比例关系，只有一项研究提供了关于个别冰川冰厚分布的全球尺度信息。在这里，我们使用了多达五个模型的集合，为格陵兰岛和南极冰盖以外的所有约215，000个冰川的冰厚度分布提供了一致的估计。该模型利用冰流动力学原理，从表面特征反演冰厚。我们发现总体积为158 +/- 41 x 10（3）km（3），当减去位于现今海平面以下的冰部分（约15%）时，相当于海平面变化0.32 +/- 0.08 m。我们的研究结果表明，亚洲高山地区的冰川冰比以前提出的少27%，这意味着该地区预计将失去一半的冰川面积的时间必须提前大约十年。
Knowledge of the ice thickness distribution of the world's glaciers is a fundamental prerequisite for a range of studies. Projections of future glacier change, estimates of the available freshwater resources or assessments of potential sea-level rise all need glacier ice thickness to be accurately constrained. Previous estimates of global glacier volumes are mostly based on scaling relations between glacier area and volume, and only one study provides global-scale information on the ice thickness distribution of individual glaciers. Here we use an ensemble of up to five models to provide a consensus estimate for the ice thickness distribution of all the about 215,000 glaciers outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The models use principles of ice flow dynamics to invert for ice thickness from surface characteristics. We find a total volume of 158 +/- 41 x 10(3) km(3), which is equivalent to 0.32 +/- 0.08 m of sea-level change when the fraction of ice located below present-day sea level (roughly 15%) is subtracted. Our results indicate that High Mountain Asia hosts about 27% less glacier ice than previously suggested, and imply that the timing by which the region is expected to lose half of its present-day glacier area has to be moved forward by about one decade.