Quantifying the efficacy of genetic shifting in control of mosquito-borne diseases.
Quantifying the efficacy of genetic shifting in control of mosquito-borne diseases.
复制标题
量化基因转移在控制蚊媒疾病方面的功效。
DOI：
10.1111/eva.12802
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Powell,JeffreyR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xia,Siyang;Baskett,MarissaL;Powell,JeffreyR
世界上许多最流行的疾病都是通过动物媒介传播的，如蚊子传播的登革热。为了减少这些病媒传播的疾病，一个有希望的方法是"遗传转移"：选择性地繁殖对病原体更具抵抗力的病媒，并将它们释放到目标人群中，以降低它们传播病原体的能力，即降低它们的病媒能力。遗传转移的效力将取决于可能的反作用力，如针对低载体能力的自然选择。为了定量评估遗传转移的潜在功效，我们开发了一系列耦合的遗传-人口模型，该模型模拟了在释放具有低载体能力的个体期间载体能力的变化。我们使用不同的遗传结构模拟载体能力，作为多位点，单位点或双位点性状。使用经验确定的模型参数的估计值，该模型预测的平均载体能力的减少至少三个标准差后，20个版本，每一代一个版本，和10%的目标人口的大小释放的每一次。敏感性分析表明，释放效果主要取决于释放人口的载体能力，释放大小，释放频率，和释放的个人的生存，与释放程序的持续时间不太重要。自然过程，如密度依赖的生存和外来人口的移民也强烈影响释放效率。在不同的性别依赖性释放策略中，将吸血雌性与雄性一起释放导致最高的释放效率，因为这些雌性在圈养中交配并在释放时繁殖，从而产生更大比例的低载体能力后代。结论一般是一致的，在三个模型，假设不同的遗传结构的载体能力，这表明遗传转移通常可以适用于各种载体系统，并不需要详细的知识，基因座的数量，有助于载体能力。
Many of the world's most prevalent diseases are transmitted by animal vectors such as dengue transmitted by mosquitoes. To reduce these vector‐borne diseases, a promising approach is “genetic shifting”: selective breeding of the vectors to be more resistant to pathogens and releasing them to the target populations to reduce their ability to transmit pathogens, that is, lower their vector competence. The efficacy of genetic shifting will depend on possible counterforces such as natural selection against low vector competence. To quantitatively evaluate the potential efficacy of genetic shifting, we developed a series of coupled genetic–demographic models that simulate the changes of vector competence during releases of individuals with low vector competence. We modeled vector competence using different genetic architectures, as a multilocus, one‐locus, or two‐locus trait. Using empirically determined estimates of model parameters, the model predicted a reduction of mean vector competence of at least three standard deviations after 20 releases, one release per generation, and 10% of the size of the target population released each time. Sensitivity analysis suggested that release efficacy depends mostly on the vector competence of the released population, release size, release frequency, and the survivorship of the released individuals, with duration of the release program less important. Natural processes such as density‐dependent survival and immigration from external populations also strongly influence release efficacy. Among different sex‐dependent release strategies, releasing blood‐fed females together with males resulted in the highest release efficacy, as these females mate in captivity and reproduce when released, thus contributing a greater proportion of low‐vector‐competence offspring. Conclusions were generally consistent across three models assuming different genetic architectures of vector competence, suggesting that genetic shifting could generally apply to various vector systems and does not require detailed knowledge of the number of loci contributing to vector competence.