State‐space modeling clarifies productivity regime shifts of Japanese flying squid
State‐space modeling clarifies productivity regime shifts of Japanese flying squid
复制标题
状态空间模型阐明了日本鱿鱼的生产力体制转变
DOI：
10.1002/1438-390x.12062
复制
发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Okamura Hiroshi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nishijima Shota;Kubota Hiroshi;Kaga Toshiki;Okamoto Suguru;Miyahara Hisae;Okamura Hiroshi
气候和环境条件的变化可能影响渔业资源的生产力，给种群管理带来挑战。日本飞鱿鱼（Todarodes pacificus）的种群被怀疑遭受政权转移，但检测该物种政权转移的发生通常是困难和不可靠的，因为该物种的短暂生命本质固有地混淆了政权转移与观察和过程错误的影响。在这里，我们开发了一个新的状态空间评估模型，以评估政权转移对日本飞鱼的产卵-招募关系的影响。该模型同时估计种群动态的多个股票，可以共享一些生活史参数，从而稳定的参数推断。我们证明了1991年和2015年左右生产力的两次制度转变导致最大可持续产量的两到三倍变化。政权转移的模式澄清了捕捞压力和产卵鱼丰度之间的关系，这是很难检测到的模式没有政权转移。状态空间方法是一种很有前途的工具，可以通过将补充过程与观察误差分开来准确评估种群状况，预计将有助于有效管理对状态变化敏感的海洋生物资源。
Regime shifts of climatic and environmental conditions potentially affect the productivity of fishery resources, posing challenges in stock management. The stocks of the Japanese flying squid (Todarodes pacificus) are suspected to suffer from regime shifts, but detecting the occurrence of regime shifts in this species is generally difficult and unreliable because the short‐lived nature of this species inherently confounds the effect of regime shifts with observation and process errors. Here we developed a new state‐space assessment model to evaluate the influence of regime shifts on the spawner‐recruit relationship of the Japanese flying squid. The model simultaneously estimates the population dynamics of multiple stocks that could share some life history parameters, thereby stabilizing parameter inference. We demonstrate that two regime shifts in productivity around 1991 and 2015 caused two‐ to threefold changes of maximum sustainable yields. The model with regime shifts clarifies the relationship between fishing pressure and spawner abundance that is difficult to detect in a model with no regime shift. The state‐space approach is a promising tool for accurately assessing stock status by separating the recruitment process from observation errors and is expected to contribute to the effective management of marine biological resources sensitive to regime shifts.