Global Power Transitions and Regional Interests
Global Power Transitions and Regional Interests
复制标题
全球权力转移与地区利益
DOI：
10.1080/03050620701451138
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发表时间：
2007
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
Joe Clare
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
V. Danilovic;Joe Clare
一些研究已经检验并在很大程度上证实了权力过渡是战争的必要条件，但权力过渡(PT)理论的第二个关键要素--挑战者对现状的不满--分析的程度要小得多。本文旨在解决这一研究空白。大国之间的全球权力交接确实可能破坏稳定，可能引发重大冲突，但我们也认为，除非全球竞争者在其关键利益领域存在利益冲突，否则不太可能发生暴力冲突。因此，我们的研究通过在两个不同的结构层次上确定其两个基本要素--(1)相对权力和(2)对现状的态度--提供了对原始PT理论的修正。正如奥尔甘斯基和库格勒最初指出的那样，大国之间的权力交接在全球层面上仍然被视为关键，而对现状的不满关系到它们利益的地区背景。本文提供了这两个层面之间的理论联系，并定量检验了这一论点，并对进一步完善PT理论提出了建议。
A number of studies have examined and largely validated power transitions as necessary conditions for war, yet the second critical element of power transition (PT) theory—a challenger's dissatisfaction with the status quo—has been analyzed to a much lesser degree. This paper is intended to address this research gap. Global power transitions between major powers can indeed be destabilizing, potentially triggering major conflicts, but we also argue that violent conflict is unlikely unless there is a clash of interests between the global contenders in the critical regions of their vital interests. Our study thus provides a modification of the original PT theory by identifying its two essential elements—(1) relative power and (2) attitude toward the status quo—at two different structural levels. Power transitions between major powers are still seen as critical at the global level, as originally stated by Organski and Kugler, whereas dissatisfaction with the status quo concerns the regional context of their interests. The paper provides a theoretical link between these two levels and quantitatively tests the argument, with suggested implications for further refinements of PT theory.