Arctic Soil Governs Whether Climate Change Drives Global Losses or Gains in Soil Carbon
Arctic Soil Governs Whether Climate Change Drives Global Losses or Gains in Soil Carbon
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DOI：
10.1029/2019gl085543
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发表时间：
2019-12
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
W. Wieder;B. Sulman;M. Hartman;C. Koven;M. Bradford
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
W. Wieder;B. Sulman;M. Hartman;C. Koven;M. Bradford
陆地碳循环预测的主要不确定性围绕着碳循环对气候变化反馈的时间、方向和幅度。这在富含碳的北极生态系统中尤其如此，永久冻土约占世界土壤碳储量的三分之一，很可能会受到损失。利用土壤生态地球化学模型的合奏，反映了最近的变化，在概念上的理解，负责土壤碳持久性的因素，我们量化潜在的土壤碳响应下两个代表性的气候变化情景。我们的研究结果表明，模型不同意全球土壤变化的迹象和幅度，到2100年，分歧主要是由北极系统的不同反应。这些结果在很大程度上反映了对土壤碳持久性和脆弱性性质的不同假设，强调了与设定允许的温室气体排放目标相关的挑战，这些目标将把全球变暖限制在1.5°C。
Key uncertainties in terrestrial carbon cycle projections revolve around the timing, direction, and magnitude of the carbon cycle feedback to climate change. This is especially true in carbon‐rich Arctic ecosystems, where permafrost soils contain roughly one third of the world's soil carbon stocks, which are likely vulnerable to loss. Using an ensemble of soil biogeochemical models that reflect recent changes in the conceptual understanding of factors responsible for soil carbon persistence, we quantify potential soil carbon responses under two representative climate change scenarios. Our results illustrate that models disagree on the sign and magnitude of global soil changes through 2100, with disagreements primarily driven by divergent responses of Arctic systems. These results largely reflect different assumptions about the nature of soil carbon persistence and vulnerabilities, underscoring the challenges associated with setting allowable greenhouse gas emission targets that will limit global warming to 1.5°C.