Comparative evaluation of global low-carbon urban transport
Comparative evaluation of global low-carbon urban transport
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全球低碳城市交通对比评价
DOI：
10.1016/j.techfore.2019.02.008
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发表时间：
2019-06-01
影响因子：
12
通讯作者：
Mai, Xianmin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Wenxiang;Bao, Lei;Mai, Xianmin
随着人们对气候变化的日益关注，低碳城市交通发展的趋势具有全球吸引力。低碳城市交通评价是向低碳城市交通转型的前提。然而，现有的研究大多只关注城市交通CO2排放的绝对评价，并不能代表城市交通的低碳水平。此外，一个绝对的评价是不可比的不同城市随着时间的推移，因为它忽略了城市异质性的影响。因此，本文提出了一种综合考虑城市人口规模、人口密度和经济发展水平影响的比较评价方法。基于城市人口规模、人口密度与经济发展的关系，建立了不同性质城市人均CO2排放基准模型。在此基础上，通过基准模型推导出一个比较评价指标，对各政策因素的影响进行独立评价，从而反映城市交通的低碳水平。因此，可以确定具有低碳城市交通的城市。在此基础上，提出了四种城市交通转型类型：稳定高碳转型、稳定低碳转型、低碳转型和高碳转型。这些方法被应用于全球180个城市，以验证其有效性。这是全球180个城市首次使用统一的低碳城市交通定量评价指标进行比较。
Given increasing concern about climate change, the trend toward low-carbon urban transport development has global appeal. The evaluation of low-carbon urban transport is a prerequisite for a transition toward low-carbon urban transport. However, most of the existing research focuses only on the absolute evaluation of urban transport CO2 emissions, which do not represent the level of low-carbon urban transport. In addition, an absolute evaluation is not comparable across different cities over time because it ignores the effects of urban heterogeneity. Therefore, this paper develops a comparative evaluation method that considers the effects of urban population scale, population density and economic development. A benchmark model of per capita CO2 emissions for different cities with different properties is established based on the relationships between urban population scale, population density, and economic development. Then, a comparative evaluation index is derived from the benchmark model to independently evaluate the effects of policy factors, which may reflect the level of low-carbon urban transport. As a result, cities with low-carbon urban transport can be identified. Furthermore, four urban transport transition types are identified: stable high-carbon transitions, stable low-carbon transitions, low-carbon transitions, and high-carbon transitions. These methods are applied to 180 cities worldwide to verify their effectiveness. This is the first time that 180 global cities have been compared using a unified and quantitative evaluation index of low-carbon urban transport.