The Effect of Climate Change on the Sea Ice and Hydrography in Nares Strait
The Effect of Climate Change on the Sea Ice and Hydrography in Nares Strait
复制标题
气候变化对内雷斯海峡海冰和水文的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. Kaas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Rasmussen;N. Kliem;E. Kaas
本文采用混合坐标海洋模式（HYCOM）和海冰模式（CICE）耦合的三维海洋模式，模拟了1952 ~ 2080年林肯海、内尔斯海峡和巴芬湾的冰盖和水文过程。前八年用于旋转模型。过去的120年被分为四年的子周期，已被评估和比较，以估计模拟的变化。模拟的海洋体积通量和淡水通量比较以及在目前的情况下观察。年体积通量各不相同，但10年平均值约为0.8 Sv（1 Sv = 106 m3 s −1），没有任何长期趋势。应该注意的是，在整个模拟过程中，在巴芬湾和兰开斯特湾的海面高度上增加了5 cm。这样做是为了在不改变变异性的情况下控制控制期的体积通量。淡水通量从控制情景中的约27 mSv增加到未来情景中的73 mSv，主要是由于地表较新鲜。与卫星图像结果相比，通过纳雷斯海峡的年冰面积通量的大小高于预期。这是因为在凯恩盆地南部形成的冰拱在模型模拟中不太稳定。其结果是海冰面积通量约为100。这与2007年冰拱未形成时观测到的海冰面积通量大致相同。从2040年开始，海冰面积通量将增加约50%，因为海冰浓度降低，导致内部海冰强度大幅降低。海冰体积通量在整个期间从大约200减少到大约125。模拟的海冰覆盖在整个期间都在减少。该地区在冬季仍然完全被冰覆盖，但海冰覆盖的持续时间变得更短。这导致了更新鲜的海面，在大约200米的深度温度上升高达0.5 °C。北水Polynya在春季的开放受到凯恩盆地冰拱寿命缩短的限制。然而，在冰拱稳定的某些年份，冰穴在时间和地点上都像预期的那样打开。
A three-dimensional coupled ocean (Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model; HYCOM) and sea-ice (Community Ice Code; CICE) model were used to simulate the ice cover and hydrography in the Lincoln Sea, Nares Strait and Baffin Bay for the period 1952 to 2080. The first eight years were used to spin up the model. The last 120 years were divided into four-year sub-periods, which have been evaluated and compared in order to estimate the simulated changes. The modelled oceanic volume flux and freshwater fluxes compare well with observations in the present day scenario. The annual volume flux varies, but the 10-year average is approximately 0.8 Sv (1 Sv = 106m3s−1) without any long-term trend. It should be noted that 5 cm were added to the sea surface height in Baffin Bay and Lancaster Sound during the entire simulation. This was done in order to control the volume flux of the control period without changing the variabillity. The freshwater flux increases from approximately 27 mSv in the control scenario to 73 mSv in the future scenario, mainly due to a fresher surface. The magnitude of the annual ice area flux through Nares Strait is higher than expected compared with results from satellite images. This is because the ice arch formed in the southern part of Kane Basin is less stable in the model simulation. The result is a sea-ice area flux of about 100 . This is approximately the same sea-ice area flux as observed in 2007 when the ice arch did not form. The sea-ice area flux from 2040 increases by around 50% because of a lowering of the sea-ice concentration which causes a large reduction in the internal sea-ice strength. The sea-ice volume flux is reduced during the entire period from approximately 200 to around 125 . The simulated sea-ice cover decreases throughout the entire period. The area is still fully ice covered during winter, but the duration of the sea-ice coverage becomes shorter. This leads to a fresher sea surface and a temperature increase of up to 0.5 °C at depths of approximately 200 m. The opening of the North Water Polynya in spring is limited by the reduced lifetime of the ice arch in Kane Basin. However, during some years when the ice arch is stable the polynya opens as expected both in time and place.