Statistical modelling of ground temperature in mountain permafrost
Statistical modelling of ground temperature in mountain permafrost
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DOI：
10.1098/rspa.2011.0615
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发表时间：
2012-05-08
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Davison, A. C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Blanchet, J.;Davison, A. C.
永久冻土层由土壤和岩石组成，至少连续两年保持在0摄氏度或以下。在山区，永久冻土层的地面冰就像水泥一样，稳定着岩壁。随着气候变暖，其退化可能导致高山斜坡不稳定，并对基础设施造成破坏，因此了解其演变情况对于风险分析至关重要。在纯固体中，热量通过传导进行传递，但永久冻土地面也受到非传导通量的影响，并且热量传递受到气温和积雪等因素的影响，因此确定性方案不能完全描述热传播。目前的建模方法使用涉及热传导方案和能量平衡模型的数值模型，需要相对湿度和辐射等数量的数据。我们描述了热方程的随机处理，它适应于由空气温度和积雪等因素驱动的热传递的时空变化，而不需要相应的数据，作为统计模型的一部分。我们的方法的灵活性和性能的说明，从两个钻孔的数据在瑞士阿尔卑斯山，这表明积雪对地面温度和长期退化的永久冻土产生的2003年热浪的强烈影响。
Permafrost consists of soil and rocks that remain at 0 degrees C or below for at least two consecutive years. In mountains, permafrost ground ice acts like cement, stabilizing rock walls. Its degradation, following climate warming, may lead to slope instability in high mountains and damage to infrastructure, so knowledge about its evolution is essential for risk analysis. In pure solids, heat is transferred by conduction, but permafrost ground is also subject to non-conductive fluxes, and heat transfers are influenced by factors such as air temperature and snow cover, so a deterministic scheme cannot fully describe heat propagation. Current approaches to modelling use numerical models involving heat conduction schemes and energy balance models, requiring data on quantities such as relative humidity and radiation. We describe a stochastic treatment of the heat equation, which adapts to space-time changes in heat transfers driven by factors such as air temperature and snow cover, without requiring corresponding data, as part of a statistical model. The flexibility and performance of our approach are illustrated using data from two boreholes in the Swiss Alps, which show the strong influence of snow cover on ground temperature and the long-term degradation of permafrost produced by the 2003 heat wave.