Accounting for adaptation and intensity in projecting heat wave-related mortality.
Accounting for adaptation and intensity in projecting heat wave-related mortality.
复制标题
在预测热浪相关死亡率时考虑适应和强度。
DOI：
10.1016/j.envres.2017.11.049
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
8.3
通讯作者：
Schwartz,JoelD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang,Yan;Nordio,Francesco;Nairn,John;Zanobetti,Antonella;Schwartz,JoelD
热浪的适应和强度如何影响与热浪相关的死亡率尚不清楚，这使得健康预测变得困难。方法对1962-2006年间美国209个城市1.68亿人口的热浪、热浪强度和适应对死亡率的影响进行了估算。通过利用余热因子（EHF）纳入热浪强度，并利用与年平均夏季温度（MST）的交互作用对自适应进行经验估计，对标准时间序列模型进行了改进。我们将热浪、强度和适应的流行病学估计与耦合模式比较项目第5阶段（CMIP5）多模式数据集相结合，预测了到2050年热浪相关的死亡率。结果热浪的影响随热浪强度的增大而增大。对热浪的适应表现为高温对热浪的影响减弱。然而，随着MST的增加，适应性减弱。在预测中忽略适应将导致对预测的热浪相关死亡率的严重高估（2050年为277-747%）。将经验估计的适应纳入预测将导致2006年至2050年期间预测的热浪相关死亡率几乎没有变化。然而，这种情况因地区而异，随着时间的推移，美国南部和西部城市的死亡率在上升，而北部城市的死亡率在下降。结论考虑适应因素对于减少预测热浪相关死亡率的偏差很重要。美国南部和西部地区面临着越来越多的与热有关的死亡，这一发现是新颖的，并表明需要更多的区域适应策略。
BackgroundHow adaptation and intensity of heat waves affect heat wave-related mortality is unclear, making health projections difficult.MethodsWe estimated the effect of heat waves, the effect of the intensity of heat waves, and adaptation on mortality in 209 U.S. cities with 168 million people during 1962–2006. We improved the standard time-series models by incorporating the intensity of heat waves using excess heat factor (EHF) and estimating adaptation empirically using interactions with yearly mean summer temperature (MST). We combined the epidemiological estimates for heat wave, intensity, and adaptation with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset to project heat wave-related mortality by 2050.ResultsThe effect of heat waves increased with its intensity. Adaptation to heat waves occurred, which was shown by the decreasing effect of heat waves with MST. However, adaptation was lessened as MST increased. Ignoring adaptation in projections would result in a substantial overestimate of the projected heat wave-related mortality (by 277–747% in 2050). Incorporating the empirically estimated adaptation into projections would result in little change in the projected heat wave-related mortality between 2006 and 2050. This differs regionally, however, with increasing mortality over time for cities in the southern and western U.S. but decreasing mortality over time for the north.ConclusionsAccounting for adaptation is important to reduce bias in the projections of heat wave-related mortality. The finding that the southern and western U.S. are the areas that face increasing heat-related deaths is novel, and indicates that more regional adaptation strategies are needed.