On a backward bifurcation of an epidemic model with capacities of treatment and vaccination
On a backward bifurcation of an epidemic model with capacities of treatment and vaccination
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DOI：
10.14495/jsiaml.13.64
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Hiromu Gion;Yasuhisa Saito;S. Yazaki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hiromu Gion;Yasuhisa Saito;S. Yazaki
本文提出了一种具有治疗和疫苗接种能力的流行病模型，以讨论它们对疾病传播的影响。数值显示，如果容量相对较小，基本再生数 R0 会发生向后分叉，当 R0 < 1 时，稳定的地方病平衡与稳定的无病平衡共存。这一流行病学含义是，当没有足够的治疗或疫苗接种能力时，R0<1的要求不足以有效控制疾病，即使R0<1，疾病也可能发生高流行水平。
This paper presents an epidemic model with capacities of treatment and vaccination to discuss their effect on the disease spread. It is numerically shown that a backward bifurcation occurs in the basic reproduction number R0, where a stable endemic equilibrium co-exists with a stable disease-free equilibrium when R0 < 1, if the capacities are relatively small. This epidemiological implication is that, when there is not enough capacity for treatment or vaccination, the requirement R0 < 1 is not sufficient for effective disease control and disease outbreak may happen to a high endemic level even though R0 < 1.