Diagnosing the 'Russian Disease' : Growth and Structure of the Russian Economy
Diagnosing the 'Russian Disease' : Growth and Structure of the Russian Economy
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诊断“俄罗斯病”：俄罗斯经济的增长和结构
DOI：
10.1057/ces.2012.1
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
0.8
通讯作者：
Masaaki Kuboniwa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Peng;S.-K. and Zeng;D.-Z.;Kenji Matsui;Masaaki Kuboniwa
俄罗斯经济正在经历“俄罗斯病”（R-D），其主要症状是1995年至2010年实际产出增长与油价之间存在强烈的正相关关系。症状明显不同于荷兰病的特征。我们还表明，实际汇率对俄罗斯的产出增长没有负面影响。其次，我们发现油价与实际汇率之间存在长期正相关关系。第三，我们表明，石油价格的影响可以通过国民经济核算体系中的贸易条件和贸易收益来体现。第四，我们表明，由于卢布的实际升值，进口的增加反过来又促进了贸易部门的GDP增长，这是俄罗斯整体增长的主要来源，也是研发的一个症状。
The Russian economy is experiencing ‘Russian Disease’ (R-D) whose major symptom is a strong positive relationship between the real output growth and oil prices from 1995 through 2010. The symptoms differ significantly from those characterizing Dutch Disease. We also show that there is no negative impact of the real exchange rate on output growth in Russia. Second, we find a long-run positive relationship between oil prices and the real exchange rate. Third, we show that the effect of oil prices can be captured by terms of trade and trading gains in the System of National Accounts. Fourth, we show that the increase in imports due to real appreciation of rubles, in turn, contributed to GDP growth in the trade sector, which is a major source of overall Russian growth and a symptom of R-D.