Estimating the index flood with continuous hydrological models: an application in Great Britain
Estimating the index flood with continuous hydrological models: an application in Great Britain
复制标题
用连续水文模型估算指数洪水：在英国的应用
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
V. Bell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Formetta;I. Prosdocimi;E. Stewart;V. Bell
估算河流峰值流量是工程水文学中的一个关键问题，对于设计和管理水坝和桥梁等水利基础设施至关重要。在英国，从业者通常应用洪水估算手册（FEH）统计方法，该方法将设计洪水估算为相对频繁的流量估算（指数洪水，IF）和区域增长因子的乘积。对于测量集水区，IF 是根据观测值估算的。对于未测量的流域，它是通过多元回归模型计算的。虽然 FEH IF 方法提供了统计上稳健的峰值流量估计值，但它不容易考虑流域异质性或环境变化对河流流量的影响。本研究提出了一种新的方法，使用基于物理的水文模型（网格到网格）的连续模拟来估计国家尺度的影响因子。该方法在英国各地进行了测试，并与 550 个测量站的 IF 估计值进行了很好的比较（R2 = 0.91）。英国令人鼓舞的结果支持了这样的愿望：大规模水文模型的连续模拟加上全球天气和气候产品的可用性不断增加，可用于估计测量数据有限或受环境变化影响的地区的设计洪水。
Estimating peak river discharge, a critical issue in engineering hydrology, is essential for designing and managing hydraulic infrastructure such as dams and bridges. In the UK, practitioners typically apply the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) statistical method which estimates the design flood as the product of a relatively frequent flow estimate (the index flood, IF) and a regional growth factor. For gauged catchments the IF is estimated from observations. For ungauged catchments it is computed through a multiple regression model. While the FEH IF method provides peak flow estimates that are statistically robust, it does not readily take into account catchment heterogeneity or effect of environmental change on river flows. This study presents a new methodology to estimate the IF at national scale using continuous simulation from a physically based hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid). The methodology is tested across Great Britain and compares well with IF estimates at 550 gauging stations (R2 = 0.91). The promising results for Great Britain support the aspiration that continuous simulation from large-scale hydrological models coupled with increasing availability of global weather and climate products, could be used to estimate design floods in regions with limited gauge data or affected by environmental change.
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Bell, V. A.;Kay, A. L.;Reynard, N. S.
通讯作者：
Reynard, N. S.