A new approach to map landscape variation in forest restoration success in tropical and temperate forest biomes
A new approach to map landscape variation in forest restoration success in tropical and temperate forest biomes
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/1365-2664.13501
复制
发表时间：
2019-12-01
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Brancalion, Pedro H. S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Crouzeilles, Renato;Barros, Felipe S. M.;Brancalion, Pedro H. S.
在森林恢复期间，景观内生物多样性恢复的高度变化对确保大规模、具有成本效益和持久的生态恢复构成障碍。迫切需要在全球范围内预测森林恢复成功的景观变化。我们对135个研究景观进行了荟萃分析，以预测和绘制热带和温带森林生物群落森林恢复成功的景观变化。我们的分析基于一个景观内的森林覆盖面积——这是森林恢复成功的关键驱动因素。我们对比了17种广义线性模型，测量了不同景观大小（缓冲半径从5到200公里不等）下的森林覆盖。我们确定了最合理的模型来预测和绘制森林恢复成功的景观变化。然后，我们通过同一景观中潜在可恢复区域（农业和牧场面积）的数量对景观变化进行加权。最后，我们估算了在美国、巴西和乌干达三种特定的温带和热带森林生物群落类型中实施波恩挑战承诺的恢复成本。随着森林覆盖面积的增加，景观变化呈指数递减，在5 km半径范围内影响更强。38%的森林生物群落具有森林覆盖率超过27%的景观，景观变化水平低于10%。森林覆盖率低于6%的景观，其森林恢复成功率的变化水平高于50%。在生物群系水平上，热带和亚热带湿润阔叶林的森林恢复成功率加权景观变异平均值最低（12.6%），而热带和亚热带干燥阔叶林的森林恢复成功率加权景观变异平均值最高（22.9%）。我们的方法可使每项波恩挑战承诺的实施成本减少973亿至9.9亿美元。政策的影响。我们的方法确定了在森林恢复过程中增加生物多样性恢复可能性的景观特征，以及潜在的自然再生和长期生态可持续性和功能的机会。确定景观变化程度低的地区有助于降低实施雄心勃勃的恢复承诺所带来的风险和财政成本。
A high level of variation of biodiversity recovery within a landscape during forest restoration presents obstacles to ensure large-scale, cost-effective and long-lasting ecological restoration. There is an urgent need to predict landscape variation in forest restoration success at a global scale. We conducted a meta-analysis comprising 135 study landscapes to predict and map landscape variation in forest restoration success in tropical and temperate forest biomes. Our analysis was based on the amount of forest cover within a landscape - a key driver of forest restoration success. We contrasted 17 generalized linear models measuring forest cover at different landscape sizes (with buffers varying from 5 to 200 km radii). We identified the most plausible model to predict and map landscape variation in forest restoration success. We then weighted landscape variation by the amount of potentially restorable areas (agriculture and pasture land areas) within the same landscape. Finally, we estimated restoration costs of implementing Bonn Challenge commitments in three specific temperate and tropical forest biome types in the United States, Brazil and Uganda. Landscape variation decreased exponentially as the amount of forest cover increased in the landscape, with stronger effects within a 5 km radius. Thirty-eight per cent of forest biomes have landscapes with more than 27% of forest cover and showed levels of landscape variation below 10%. Landscapes with less than 6% of forest cover showed levels of variation in forest restoration success above 50%. At the biome level, Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forests had the lowest (12.6%), whereas Tropical and Subtropical Dry Broadleaf Forests had the highest (22.9%) average of weighted landscape variation in forest restoration success. Our approach can lead to a reduction in implementation costs for each Bonn Challenge commitment between US$ 973 Mi and 9.9 Bi. Policy implications. Our approach identifies landscape characteristics that increase the likelihood of biodiversity recovery during forest restoration - and potentially the chances of natural regeneration and long-term ecological sustainability and functionality. Identifying areas with low levels of landscape variation can help to reduce the risks and financial costs associated with implementing ambitious restoration commitments.