Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses
Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses
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DOI：
10.1016/s0959-3780(99)00019-9
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发表时间：
1999-10
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
R. Nicholls;F.M.J. Hoozemans;M. Marchand
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Nicholls;F.M.J. Hoozemans;M. Marchand
为了改进对（1）风暴潮引起的洪水和（2）海平面加速上升引起的湿地损失的估计，Hoozemans等人（1993）的工作扩展到动态分析。它考虑了几个同时变化的因素的影响，包括：（1）全球海平面上升和下降;（2）沿海人口增加;（3）提高防洪标准（使用人均国民生产总值作为“支付能力”参数）。全球海平面上升情景来自Hadley中心的两个大气环流模式（GCM）实验：（1）HadCM 2仅温室气体集合实验和（2）最近的HadCM 3仅温室气体实验。在所有情况下，从1990年到2080年代，全球海平面上升约38厘米。没有考虑其他气候变化。相对于没有海平面上升的不断变化的参考情景，这一分析表明，到2080年代，由于海平面上升，典型年份中被风暴潮淹没的人数将增加五倍以上。其中许多人将经历每年或更频繁的洪水，这表明洪水频率的增加将超过滋扰水平和一些反应（增加保护，迁移等）。将是必需的。就绝对数字而言，最容易遭受洪水的地区是地中海南部、非洲，特别是南亚和东南亚，那里集中了人口稠密的低洼三角洲。然而，加勒比、印度洋岛屿和太平洋小岛屿的洪水风险可能相对增加最多。到21世纪80年代，海平面上升可能导致全球22%的沿海湿地消失。如果再加上人类直接活动造成的其他损失，到2080年代，世界上多达70%的沿海湿地可能会消失，尽管存在相当大的不确定性。因此，海平面上升将加剧湿地丧失的其他不利趋势。海平面上升造成的最大损失将发生在地中海和波罗的海周围，其次是中美洲和北美洲的大西洋沿岸以及加勒比海的较小岛屿。总的来说，这些结果表明，如果没有适应性反应，相对较小的全球海平面上升可能产生重大不利影响。鉴于“对海平面上升的承诺”，无论未来是否有任何现实的排放政策，现在就需要开始战略规划适当的应对措施。鉴于沿海洪水和湿地丧失已经是重要问题，这样的规划可以立即带来好处。
To develop improved estimates of (1)flooding due to storm surges, and (2)wetland losses due to accelerated sea-level rise, the work of Hoozemans et al. (1993) is extended to a dynamic analysis. It considers the effects of several simultaneously changing factors, including: (1)global sea-level rise and subsidence; (2)increasing coastal population; and (3)improving standards of flood defence (using GNP/capita as an “ability-to-pay” parameter). The global sea-level rise scenarios are derived from two General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments of the Hadley Centre: (1)the HadCM2 greenhouse gas only ensemble experiment and (2)the more recent HadCM3 greenhouse gas only experiment. In all cases there is a global rise in sea level of about 38cm from 1990 to the 2080s. No other climate change is considered. Relative to an evolving reference scenario without sea-level rise, this analysis suggests that the number of people flooded by storm surge in a typical year will be more than five times higher due to sea-level rise by the 2080s. Many of these people will experience annual or more frequent flooding, suggesting that the increase in flood frequency will be more than nuisance level and some response (increased protection, migration, etc.) will be required. In absolute terms, the areas most vulnerable to flooding are the southern Mediterranean, Africa, and most particularly, South and South-east Asia where there is a concentration of low-lying populated deltas. However, the Caribbean, the Indian Ocean islands and the Pacific Ocean small islands may experience the largest relative increase in flood risk. By the 2080s, sea-level rise could cause the loss of up to 22% of the world's coastal wetlands. When combined with other losses due to direct human action, up to 70% of the world's coastal wetlands could be lost by the 2080s, although there is considerable uncertainty. Therefore, sea-level rise would reinforce other adverse trends of wetland loss. The largest losses due to sea-level rise will be around the Mediterranean and Baltic and to a lesser extent on the Atlantic coast of Central and North America and the smaller islands of the Caribbean. Collectively, these results show that a relatively small global rise in sea level could have significant adverse impacts if there is no adaptive response. Given the “commitment to sea-level rise” irrespective of any realistic future emissions policy, there is a need to start strategic planning of appropriate responses now. Given that coastal flooding and wetland loss are already important problems, such planning could have immediate benefits.