Endemic foot and mouth disease: pastoral in-herd disease dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa.
Endemic foot and mouth disease: pastoral in-herd disease dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa.
复制标题
地方性口蹄疫：撒哈拉以南非洲牧区牛群疾病动态。
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-019-53658-5
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
McLachlan I
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
McLachlan I
口蹄疫负担对非洲的影响尤为严重，非洲认为口蹄疫是一种地方性疾病。小农牲畜饲养者因疾病而遭受重大损失，但对畜群及其他层面持续存在的动力和机制仍然知之甚少。我们利用随机区室模型来探讨口蹄疫病毒（FMDV）的持久性、暴发动态和流行环境中单个牛群的疾病负担，以解决这一知识缺口。我们的分析表明，无论病毒携带者是否存在，都需要从畜群外部反复引入病毒以实现病毒的长期持久性。由于免疫个体的存在，导致一段时间的风险降低，从而降低了接触新疾病导致重大继发性暴发的风险。这段时间的预测持续时间表明，每年观察到的畜群暴发是由多种口蹄疫毒株引起的。我们的分析表明，人口流动管理可能潜在地减少疾病负担，而非洲部分地区当地牲畜饲养者故意感染牛的做法对降低风险期的持续时间几乎没有影响，但却增加了疾病负担。这项工作表明，口蹄疫控制应在个别畜群之外实施，但在此期间，畜群管理可用于减少口蹄疫对牲畜饲养者的影响。
Foot and mouth disease (FMD) burden disproportionally affects Africa where it is considered endemic. Smallholder livestock keepers experience significant losses due to disease, but the dynamics and mechanisms underlying persistence at the herd-level and beyond remain poorly understood. We address this knowledge gap using stochastic, compartmental modelling to explore FMD virus (FMDV) persistence, outbreak dynamics and disease burden in individual cattle herds within an endemic setting. Our analysis suggests repeated introduction of virus from outside the herd is required for long-term viral persistence, irrespective of carrier presence. Risk of new disease exposures resulting in significant secondary outbreaks is reduced by the presence of immune individuals giving rise to a period of reduced risk, the predicted duration of which suggests that multiple strains of FMDV are responsible for observed yearly herd-level outbreaks. Our analysis suggests management of population turnover could potentially reduce disease burden and deliberate infection of cattle, practiced by local livestock keepers in parts of Africa, has little effect on the duration of the reduced risk period but increases disease burden. This work suggests that FMD control should be implemented beyond individual herds but, in the interim, herd management may be used to reduced FMD impact to livestock keepers.