Comparison of particle number size distribution trends in ground measurements and climate models
Comparison of particle number size distribution trends in ground measurements and climate models
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-22-12873-2022
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发表时间：
2022-10
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
V. Leinonen;H. Kokkola;T. Yli-Juuti;T. Mielonen;T. Kühn;T. Nieminen;Simo Heikkinen;Tuuli Miinalainen;T. Bergman;K. Carslaw;S. Decesari;M. Fiebig;T. Hussein;N. Kivekäs;R. Krejci;M. Kulmala;A. Leskinen;A. Massling;N. Mihalopoulos;J. Mulcahy;S. Noe;T. van Noije;F. O’Connor;C. O’Dowd;D. Oliviè;J. Pernov;T. Petäjä;Ø. Seland;Michael Schulz;C. Scott;H. Skov;E. Swietlicki;T. Tuch;A. Wiedensohler;A. Virtanen;S. Mikkonen
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作者：
V. Leinonen;H. Kokkola;T. Yli-Juuti;T. Mielonen;T. Kühn;T. Nieminen;Simo Heikkinen;Tuuli Miinalainen;T. Bergman;K. Carslaw;S. Decesari;M. Fiebig;T. Hussein;N. Kivekäs;R. Krejci;M. Kulmala;A. Leskinen;A. Massling;N. Mihalopoulos;J. Mulcahy;S. Noe;T. van Noije;F. O’Connor;C. O’Dowd;D. Oliviè;J. Pernov;T. Petäjä;Ø. Seland;Michael Schulz;C. Scott;H. Skov;E. Swietlicki;T. Tuch;A. Wiedensohler;A. Virtanen;S. Mikkonen
抽象的。尽管有大量的研究，在所有辐射强迫的驱动因素中，气溶胶的影响在全球气候模式辐射强迫估计中具有最大的不确定性。在气候模式中已经对气溶胶光学特性进行了研究，但粒子数尺寸分布的影响需要更彻底的检查。我们调查了欧洲和北极21个测量点的成核、艾特肯和累积模式中颗粒数浓度的趋势和季节性。对于其中13个具有较长测量时间序列的站点，我们将实地观测结果与五个气候模型的结果进行了比较，即EC-Earth 3，ECHAM-M7，ECHAM-SALSA，NorESM 1.2和UKESM 1。这是第一次对欧洲的原位观测和五个地球系统模型（ESM）之间详细的气溶胶粒度分布趋势进行广泛的比较。我们发现，粒子数浓度的趋势大多是一致的，并在测量和模型减少。然而，对于许多站点，气候模型显示的下降趋势比测量结果弱。季节性变化的测量数量的浓度，量化的最大和最小的每月数量的浓度之间的比率，通常是较强的北方测量站点相比，其他地点。模型的季节性表现有很大的差异，它们可以大致分为两类：对于EC-地球和NorESM，所有站点的季节性周期相对相似，而对于其他模型，北方和南方站点之间的季节性模式各不相同。此外，各地点的浓度变异性因模型而异，有些地点的浓度相对相似，而另一些地点的浓度在偏远和城市地点之间存在明显差异。总之，尽管所有的模型模拟都有相同的输入数据来描述人为质量排放，但由于排放量的假设和模型如何处理依赖于尺寸的气溶胶过程的差异，不同尺寸颗粒的趋势在模型之间存在差异。模型间的变异性是最大的积累模式，即大小的气溶胶-云相互作用的影响。我们的分析还表明，模型之间有一个很大的变化，气溶胶远程传输到偏远地区的效率。模型结果的差异很可能是由于不同过程的影响更为复杂，而不是由于某一具体特征（例如，气溶胶或排放量大小分布的表示）。因此，需要对影响远距离迁移的微物理过程和沉积过程进行更详细的表征，以了解模型的变异性。
Abstract. Despite a large number of studies, out of all drivers of radiative forcing, the effect of aerosols has the largest uncertainty in global climate model radiative forcing estimates. There have been studies of aerosol optical properties in climate models, but the effects of particle number size distribution need a more thorough inspection. We investigated the trends and seasonality of particle number concentrations in nucleation, Aitken, and accumulation modes at 21 measurement sites in Europe and the Arctic. For 13 of those sites, with longer measurement time series, we compared the field observations with the results from five climate models, namely EC-Earth3, ECHAM-M7, ECHAM-SALSA, NorESM1.2, and UKESM1. This is the first extensive comparison of detailed aerosol size distribution trends between in situ observations from Europe and five earth system models (ESMs). We found that the trends of particle number concentrations were mostly consistent and decreasing in both measurements and models. However, for many sites, climate models showed weaker decreasing trends than the measurements. Seasonal variability in measured number concentrations, quantified by the ratio between maximum and minimum monthly number concentration, was typically stronger at northern measurement sites compared to other locations. Models had large differences in their seasonal representation, and they can be roughly divided into two categories: for EC-Earth and NorESM, the seasonal cycle was relatively similar for all sites, and for other models the pattern of seasonality varied between northern and southern sites. In addition, the variability in concentrations across sites varied between models, some having relatively similar concentrations for all sites, whereas others showed clear differences in concentrations between remote and urban sites. To conclude, although all of the model simulations had identical input data to describe anthropogenic mass emissions, trends in differently sized particles vary among the models due to assumptions in emission sizes and differences in how models treat size-dependent aerosol processes. The inter-model variability was largest in the accumulation mode, i.e. sizes which have implications for aerosol–cloud interactions. Our analysis also indicates that between models there is a large variation in efficiency of long-range transportation of aerosols to remote locations. The differences in model results are most likely due to the more complex effect of different processes instead of one specific feature (e.g. the representation of aerosol or emission size distributions). Hence, a more detailed characterization of microphysical processes and deposition processes affecting the long-range transport is needed to understand the model variability.