The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas
The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-018-2158-6
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发表时间：
2018-03
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
R. Warren;J. Price;J. VanderWal;S. Cornelius;H. Sohl
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Warren;J. Price;J. VanderWal;S. Cornelius;H. Sohl
气候变化已经影响到物种及其分布。许多分布广泛的动植物的分布范围已经发生变化，预计这种变化将加剧，对许多生态系统造成相关的风险。在这里，我们估计气候变化相关的风险，在全球重要的生物多样性保护区的物种在一系列的气候情景，评估其作为气候避难所的价值。特别是，我们量化了各国减排承诺（《巴黎协定》下的国家自主贡献和国家自主贡献）的综合效益，以及进一步将全球变暖限制在工业化前水平以上2 °C的综合效益，而不是4.5 °C变暖的未缓解情景。我们还量化的贡献，可以通过使用智能空间保护规划，以促进一定程度的自主（即自然）适应气候变化的扩散。我们发现，如果没有减缓，平均每个保护区的33%可以作为气候避难所（如果物种无法分散，则为18%），而如果变暖被限制在2 °C，气候避难所的平均面积将增加一倍，达到每个保护区的67%（或者，没有分散，每个区域的56%）。如果国家认捐得到履行，则中间估计数为47-52%（或31- 38%，不分散）。我们的结论是，国家自主贡献本身对生物多样性保护具有重要但有限的好处，如果将变暖限制在2 °C，则会产生更大的好处。如果按照《巴黎协定》的规定，将升温限制在远低于2 °C的范围内，将产生更大的效益。
Climate change is already affecting species and their distributions. Distributional range changes have occurred and are projected to intensify for many widespread plants and animals, creating associated risks to many ecosystems. Here, we estimate the climate change-related risks to the species in globally significant biodiversity conservation areas over a range of climate scenarios, assessing their value as climate refugia. In particular, we quantify the aggregated benefit of countries’ emission reduction pledges (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement), and also of further constraining global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, against an unmitigated scenario of 4.5 °C warming. We also quantify the contribution that can be made by using smart spatial conservation planning to facilitate some levels of autonomous (i.e. natural) adaptation to climate change by dispersal. We find that without mitigation, on average 33% of each conservation area can act as climate refugium (or 18% if species are unable to disperse), whereas if warming is constrained to 2 °C, the average area of climate refuges doubles to 67% of each conservation area (or, without dispersal, more than doubles to 56% of each area). If the country pledges are fulfilled, an intermediate estimate of 47–52% (or 31–38%, without dispersal) is obtained. We conclude that the Nationally Determined Contributions alone have important but limited benefits for biodiversity conservation, with larger benefits accruing if warming is constrained to 2 °C. Greater benefits would result if warming was constrained to well below 2 °C as set out in the Paris Agreement.