Local climate determines vulnerability to camouflage mismatch in snowshoe hares
Local climate determines vulnerability to camouflage mismatch in snowshoe hares
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DOI：
10.1111/geb.13049
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发表时间：
2020-03
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
M. Zimova;Alexej P. K. Sirén;J. Nowak;A. Bryan;Jacob S. Ivan;T. Morelli;Skyler L. Suhrer;J. Whitting
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作者：
M. Zimova;Alexej P. K. Sirén;J. Nowak;A. Bryan;Jacob S. Ivan;T. Morelli;Skyler L. Suhrer;J. Whitting
目的在气候变化下，当生活事件与最佳环境条件不合时宜时，物候不匹配变得越来越普遍。种群水平对错配的敏感性取决于物候和表型可塑性在物种分布范围内的变化。在这里，我们量化了颜色换羽物候、表型可塑性和季节性伪装中物候不匹配程度的环境驱动因素，以评估常见北美哺乳动物的不匹配脆弱性。地点北美。时间段2010-2017。主要分类群研究了雪鞋野兔（Lepus americanus）。方法我们使用了超过 5,500 张雪鞋野兔的副捕获照片位于三个独立研究区域的 448 个远程摄像机陷阱站点。为了量化换羽物候和表型可塑性，我们使用了包含地理空间和高分辨率气候数据的多项逻辑回归模型。经过 7 年的监测，我们估计了野兔毛色与雪的存在和不存在之间的伪装不匹配的发生率。结果换毛物候的时空变化更多地取决于当地的气候条件，而不是纬度。首先，寒冷多雪地区的野兔在秋季换毛较早，春季换毛较晚。接下来，野兔在换毛物候学中表现出表型可塑性，以响应温度和积雪持续时间的年度变化，尤其是在春季。最后，伪装不匹配的发生在空间和时间上存在差异；黑暗、无雪背景下的白兔主要发生在积雪浅、持续时间短的地区的低雪年份。主要结论长期气候以及雪和温度的年度变化决定了雪鞋兔的毛色换毛物候。在大多数地区，气候变化导致雪季缩短，但伪装不匹配的发生率因物种分布范围而异。我们的结果强调了特定人群对气候变化引起的压力的敏感性，以及了解这种变化的必要性，以优先考虑全球环境变化下最脆弱的人群。
AimPhenological mismatches, when life‐events become mistimed with optimal environmental conditions, have become increasingly common under climate change. Population‐level susceptibility to mismatches depends on how phenology and phenotypic plasticity vary across a species’ distributional range. Here, we quantify the environmental drivers of colour moult phenology, phenotypic plasticity, and the extent of phenological mismatch in seasonal camouflage to assess vulnerability to mismatch in a common North American mammal.LocationNorth America.Time period2010–2017.Major taxa studiedSnowshoe hare (Lepus americanus).MethodsWe used > 5,500 by‐catch photographs of snowshoe hares from 448 remote camera trap sites at three independent study areas. To quantify moult phenology and phenotypic plasticity, we used multinomial logistic regression models that incorporated geospatial and high‐resolution climate data. We estimated occurrence of camouflage mismatch between hares’ coat colour and the presence and absence of snow over 7 years of monitoring.ResultsSpatial and temporal variation in moult phenology depended on local climate conditions more so than on latitude. First, hares in colder, snowier areas moulted earlier in the fall and later in the spring. Next, hares exhibited phenotypic plasticity in moult phenology in response to annual variation in temperature and snow duration, especially in the spring. Finally, the occurrence of camouflage mismatch varied in space and time; white hares on dark, snowless background occurred primarily during low‐snow years in regions characterized by shallow, short‐lasting snowpack.Main conclusionsLong‐term climate and annual variation in snow and temperature determine coat colour moult phenology in snowshoe hares. In most areas, climate change leads to shorter snow seasons, but the occurrence of camouflage mismatch varies across the species’ range. Our results underscore the population‐specific susceptibility to climate change‐induced stressors and the necessity to understand this variation to prioritize the populations most vulnerable under global environmental change.