Climate change and river flooding: Part 2 sensitivity characterisation for british catchments and example vulnerability assessments
Climate change and river flooding: Part 2 sensitivity characterisation for british catchments and example vulnerability assessments
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气候变化和河流洪水：第 2 部分英国流域的敏感性特征和脆弱性评估示例
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-013-0726-3
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
N. Reynard
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Prudhomme;A. Kay;S. Crooks;N. Reynard
本文是第二个系列描述了一个中立的方法来评估英国集水区的敏感性和脆弱性的变化，由于气候变化造成的洪水。在第一篇论文中，从154个集水区的响应面中识别出9种洪水敏感性类型。响应面描述了20年一遇洪峰（RP 20）的变化，以响应大量的降水，温度和潜在蒸散量的变化。在本文中，递归分区算法是用来连接家庭的敏感性类型的集水性能，通过决策树。该树显示了85%的成功特征的四个敏感性家庭，使用五个属性和九个路径。集水区年平均降雨量是主要的分配因素，较干集水区对气候（降水）变化的反应比较湿集水区更多变，集水区损失和渗透率更高是加重因素。完整的敏感性暴露脆弱性方法说明了两个集水区：敏感性估计使用决策树，以确定敏感性的家庭（及其相关的平均响应面）;暴露量是根据一组气候模型预测确定的，并与响应面相结合，以估计由此产生的影响（RP 20的变化）;根据一系列影响估计在一系列适应能力阈值下的脆弱性。尽管这两个集水区在地理上很近，但由于性质不同，它们对气候变化的脆弱性也不同。这表明，广义的响应面特征的集水特性是有用的筛选工具，以量化集水的脆弱性，而不需要进行全面的气候变化影响研究。
This paper is the second of a series describing a scenario-neutral methodology to assess the sensitivity and vulnerability of British catchments to changes in flooding due to climate change. In paper one, nine flood sensitivity types were identified from response surfaces generated for 154 catchments. The response surfaces describe changes in 20-year return period flood peaks (RP20) in response to a large set of changes in precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration. In this paper, a recursive partitioning algorithm is used to link families of sensitivity types to catchment properties, via a decision tree. The tree shows 85 % success characterising the four sensitivity families, using five properties and nine paths. Catchment annual average rainfall is the primary partitioning factor, with drier catchments having a more variable response to climate (precipitation) change than wetter catchments and higher catchment losses and permeability being aggravating factors. The full sensitivity-exposure-vulnerability methodology is illustrated for two catchments: sensitivity is estimated by using the decision tree to identify the sensitivity family (and its associated average response surface); exposure is defined from a set of climate model projections and combined with the response surface to estimate the resulting impacts (changes in RP20); vulnerability under a range of adaptive capacity thresholds is estimated from the set of impacts. Even though they are geographically close, the two catchments show differing vulnerability to climate change, due to their differing properties. This demonstrates that generalised response surfaces characterised by catchment properties are useful screening tools to quantify the vulnerability of catchments to climate change without the need to undertake a full climate change impact study.